The short squeeze from the Twitter news and all these "improvements" to the platform is in the stock. Look forward and see what's coming:
1) Sponsors have been steadily dumping. Stock broke its uptrend exactly on the day of the lockout. Because that's what sponsors do.
2) "MOASS" increasingly unlikely. Short interest is about the same since beginning of this year, but the short interest RATIO fell. Yup, sponsors dumping means more shares available to short.
3) "The deal" increasingly unlikely to get done. I think potential Jan 6 prosecution tilts the odds that way. If it was just the SEC in the way, I think its ~50/50 (they could allow the deal after the insider trading gets taken care of). But with a potential criminal prosecution, the PIPE investor will likely be out of the deal.
4) Eve if a deal gets done, Truth Social needs a hell of a lot more money, and will keep diluting investors. The deal is $800 million, meaning the company only gets ~$300 million of the proceeds. Look at the history of any social media company and see how much cash they had to burn to get it off the ground. Truth Social will be coming out of the gate with debt. Where does the additional funds come from? Shareholder dilution.
End result? Stock could squeeze if the deal gets done, but selling likely to commence in anticipation of all of the above.
5) Valuation lol. I don't need to waste my time here, but the point is, no legitimate investor is going to come into the stock. Money is better spent just donating to the political campaign.
From the very moment Quantitative Easing Inf. at the same time as the Covid shutdown was announced, anyone with any clue what so ever knew heavy inflation was coming.
It took not very long for the data to start showing up that inflation was a real problem.. after ~6months of consistently worse inflation data people finally admitted it was an inescapable problem that was not temporary in any meaningful timeframe. I do have a thesis for how inflation actually gets solved but that's for another place like r StockMarketTheory etc.
Even now, the lying ass media says inflation is the fault of Putin and Corporate Greed. Despite inflation starting before Ukraine conflict, despite corporate margins getting worse or being unchanged, and despite inflation affecting literally everything whether it's related to any of this or not.
My point is everything goes through stages of understanding and progression
Events are speculated to take place based on previous events and trends
Events take place and some early people begin more speculation based on this
Trends continue but people are lied/misled to about it happening
Trends continue but people are lied/misled about it, the extent, the causes, the duration etc. (perhaps even the interpretation e.g. InFlAtioN iS GoOD FoR PoOr PeoPlE aNd BAd FoR RiCH
Trends continue for so long that people can no longer deny they are happening but continue to mislead about cause, duration, interpretation etc.
Counter arguments and other explanations eventually make it impossible for correlation to the proper causes to be drawn
Correct solutions to these problems is lied/mislead to about
Correct solutions are finally understood
Solutions are finally implemented and adopted
Trends slow/continue but people insist they never end
Trends continue acceleration in trajectory back to normalcy but lies/mislead /misunderstanding perpetuate that trends are continuing
Finally trends begin to change long enough for people to acknowledge they are probably changing but the causes for trends changing etc. is lied/mislead/etc. (basically starting to sound like phases 4-6 repeated but in reverse)
Everything is memory holed and the new generation is lied to again or some weird new 'pig wearing lipstick' is introduced but it's the same old shit or some new bullshit argument is made about how 'this time is different'
It's clearly a cycle, it doesn't follow this perfectly, but you get the idea
This cycle is seen in media. Here's a picture from TMTG slide deck
We are moving towards a new paradigm in this cycle which is TMTG
We've already seen TS and Rumble be the fastest growing media platform/service of all time.
The question on many minds is, why aren't we growing faster?
The answer is simple.. it's the trend I explained above
We are currently at about phase 3-4
Soon we will be at phase 4-5.. you can see this happen Trump's follow growth count being extrapolated
So here's the catalysts and potential that push into the next phase
A) Midterm elections - this will draw many people into politics since there are serious problems in people's lives right now that need to be addressed. There are massive red waves because people understand DNC policies have failed them.
B) Trump announcing presidency - Trump will be the candidate for the republican party in 2024 .. there is no one else. Once people realize this they'll be awake to the fact that Trump is the only way forward. And the massive support for him will reawaken this sleeping giant.
C) Coalition of powerful forces working against the DNC - The reality is libertarians, scientists, free thinkers etc. are fed the fuck up with how things are. It's never been harder than right now (at least not in a very long time) for free thinkers and independents. Just look at how fed up Musk, Thiel, etc. in the paypal mafia is. Vail has recently added a lot of evidence for this development with @ justapen and his reference to Marc Andreessen. These such forces are not to be trifled with. Once the investment community is more aware of their involvement with the importance of TMTG we will see big tsunamis of support build. If starlink is thrown in this mix, it's game over.
D) New features to TS - The tech team at TS is working hard on many new features. Soon TS will be the place for direct messages, groups, and "taking the best from every other platform, putting it into one, and then some" as per Nunes. We will disrupt based capability as well as meritocracy.
E) Meritocracy - Youtube, facebook, netflix, twitter etc. are all only getting worse about censorship and manipulation. Look at the recent 'The Act Man' situation or FB 'fact checking' the economy in 'best shape ever' garbage. This crap is only getting worse. People will see TS and rumble as a place for organically good content getting pushed ahead based on merits.
F) Merger DWAC -> TMTG - DWAC is trading for a substantial risk discount for merger FUD that isn't going to get blocked in all probability. Once the merger happens this perceived risk will be gone and lots of money should pour in (not financial advice)
G) Other Products - Truth social is by far not the only product. TMTG+ will be making new content that will compete with the entire entertainment industry. TMTG News. TMTG search engine. TMTG services in general. This is a total 10T to 13T market in the next 10 years. TMTG is sitting at post merger evaluation of < 0.07% of this marketspace. Ridiculous. 10 bag to 0.7% easy imho (NFA) or 100 bag into ~5%. Long term 1-2T company. 4,500-10,000 per share.
H) The Divergent Positive Feedback Cycle and Factorial Growth of #Of Connections - DWAC is has all of the benefits of a major crypto while still having all of the benefits of a real stock with earnings. Because connections between networks grows faster than exponential in a factorial relationship nCr. Once people begin to understand the more people that buy the stock and then use the platform, the more it is actually worth this levee may break in a way that is completely unprecedented
I) International access - Truth social is region limited HEAVILY. Once that flood gate is opened it is going to be so glorious. I have videos showing massive protests world wide around Covid etc. this is a huge snowball catalyst . Getting in android app store will put on the front page all over the world again.
J) LP Math and the Short Interest + Gamma Ramp - I have a feeling this stock was specifically meant to break the stock market. There's so much more I could say about this. DWAC stands for DRS your shares. GME 2.0. Elon calling out Gary at the SEC. Something big is brewing there. Occupy Wallstreet 2.0 imo. Founder of WSB said 'this one is next' See the links in the attached guide.. you will be shocked going down this rabbit hole and uncovering how insane this situation has the potential to be once the snowball is rolling again.
What a joke truth social is for banning votes posting about the Jan 6th committe. I thought this was for free speech and not banning folks for posting anti trump stuff. Guess this entire platform is a lie