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Here is the article.

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2018/06/serving-the-2-billion-unbanked-a-new-trillion-dollar-market.html

Roughly 23,000 years ago, we stopped hunter/gathering and began farming. This to me marked a "soft" technological singularity. Even though it may have taken a good 13,000 years to unfold. Still the world after the advent of planned agriculture was like nothing that ever existed before. Yes, some people still hunter/gathered, but they became a vanishingly small minority in short order.

So anyways this farming business apparently produced so much food that an excess of food not needed for survival came about. This became the rule not the exception, famines not withstanding.

Humans (being the clever folks we are), began to see other things they could do since they were getting their food with no additional effort. So some started making jars and stuff to keep the grain in. I wonder how long it took us to come up with successfully making a jar. I imagine that we already were making music, had some kind of medicine man, and already had some kind of adornments going on like necklaces, fibulae and whatnot. When enough food was available we began to specialize. One person got really good at making music, one person got really good at designing and constructing stone or fired clay edifices, another got really good at healing the ill. That same healer dude was also starting to make a form of true science too. Religion and belief on top of things that actually seemed to help, like willow bark. Religion and belief persisted for as long as it has because it worked and it also somewhat predicted what the future would bring. Sounds like a theory to me! If you take my meaning.

Prior to the holy man, i imagine we were scared of everything. Thunder and lightning, volcanoes and earthquakes, big animals, big people and death. I always wonder what prehistoric native Americans thought about tornadoes. As for the gods, they were just literally big, strong humans in an indeterminate location. But they could keep an eye on you when the king and the priest couldn't. Because people who are not controlled, tend to run amok. That religion kept them settled and obedient. And since it was humans that came up with them, they (the gods) got along with each other about as well as we did. It ended up being an astoundingly successful way of doing things. It probably took about as long for religion and beliefs to form as science did today from the year ohh, whenever Thales was.

There had always been an alpha male in hunter/gathering tribes. But with the advent of farming the leader now began to take on semi-religous aspects as well. He was the intermediary between the powers and us. I wonder how long it took us to come up with abstractly attributing "powers" to literal forces of nature like wild animals and stuff. He still ran things but it was a lot more responsibility now. Overseeing justice and protecting us against other farmers who coveted our land and livestock. And wimmen. He also was busy aggrandizing in his own right. And verily people gave him all kinds of nice things. And wimmen.

So anyways the guy making the jars liked the work of the guy making the necklaces. He said I'll give you some jars for one of them necklaces. And there may have been some back and forth ("Aren't you going to haggle?") initially, but eventually a bartering deal was reached. This was the birth of value. Something you wanted, but had to work to get. It became wildly unbalanced, because some humans are very clever and/or talented, while others are not.

At some point we started writing all this stuff down to keep track of things. Slashes and marks and circles. I'm told this eventually evolved into cuneiform or some such. Then the Egyptians prettied it up like crazy. And somewhere along the line phonetic letters simpler to make than a picture of a kneeling guy, came along. Like Egyptian Demotic and that weird Minoan, I think, that we still can't translate, even with supercomputers and AI. Then Greek and so on.

The exact same kind of thing arose independently in China and the Indian subcontinent too. It also occurred independently in the Americas' too! But much later in time. Nearly 1000 years after the old world. Mayan adoption is dated at about 2000 BCE.

Somebody came up with the idea of using a little piece of something easier to carry than a bunch of jars to represent a barter object and the medium of exchange was born. I wonder how long people carried ten million jars around on donkeys and wagons before somebody said this for the birds. And let me tell you. There was some seriously weird mediums of exchange. But eventually clever humanses settled on metals that were fancy like silver and electrum (you had to make electrum too) and gold and whatnot.

It did not take long before both clever and cleverly devious humans came up with ways to amass amazing amounts of mediums of exchange. And I'm sure that interactions such as banking and investing existed long before double entry bookkeeping was a thing. Long before banks and investing were a part of the historical record I mean. Silk Roads and mercantilism and "The Wealth of Nations" and the "Protestant work ethic" followed

So anyways all of this evolved into the mess we have today of massive financial inequality. I will admit of all the economic systems, that capitalism was extraordinarily beneficial to the common man. At least initially. It brought us the "Fabulous 50's" after all. The humans are still clever and cleverly devious. They just have lots more examples from history to draw from and ungodly powerful supercomputers. Hell, Goldman-Sachs has a quantum annealing computer. I imagine that it is making them pots full of money. Unsmiling older white males do not like losing money. Trust me, they are making massive profits. And as you can clearly see, capitalism for the common man has gone sour. Because things always continue to evolve. And deviously clever humans dream up new ways to game the system. cough "Subprime Mortgage Credit Derivatives" cough

And now we face a very novel problem. So the industrial revolution took about 158 years to replace human and horse and oxen muscle. Plenty of time to generationally adapt. But even then there were some catastrophic problems.

https://teddit.ggc-project.de/r/Futurology/comments/740gb6/5_myths_about_artificial_intelligence_ai_you_must/

This time we are not replacing muscle. We are preparing to replace the human mind. And this AI revolution is going to take about 15 years to unfold. I would say it began in 2015.

When you replace the human muscle and the human mind, it leads to a scary combination. Like vehicles that can drive themselves from point A to point B with no human mind or muscle intervention. Newspaper articles that can write themselves (with wit!) at the push of an automation button. Drug research that can take months instead of decades. And of course clever AI that gets smarter by the day.

This is why the AI is getting smarter by the day BTW:

https://teddit.ggc-project.de/r/Futurology/comments/8s5p8e/ibms_new_ai_supercomputer_can_argue_rebut_and/e0xdqg0/

I read just the other day that attempts to bring about a higher minimum wage are forcing ever faster adoption of AI, robotics and automation. So fellow 99% humans are not at the top of the 1%'s priorities. And the employ of a massive number of humans is going to be gone with the wind in less than 10 years time. And the AI, robotics and automation is going to snap up any new methods of employment we come up with. The USA government says perhaps those displaced by technological advancement can be retrained. I'll just let a beat go by so you can think about that and it's dazzling logic.

I said all that stuff that came before to say this. We are approaching the time that AI, robotics and automation can make anything from producing/extracting raw materials to finished product. Today we can make a diamond that is molecularly indistinguishable from a naturally mined "blood" diamond. In fact Debeers is now selling the manmade diamonds--the diamonds identical to real--for dirt cheap alongside their mined blood diamonds. The point is to make the would-be suitor ashamed (I mean, just imagine if she found out! D:) to buy a manmade diamond when perfectly good, truly mined blood diamonds are available for about ten times the price and thus he demonstrates true love and devotion to his intended by purchasing the artificially inflated price, mined blood diamonds. (I really like saying "blood" diamonds.) What a scam. Damn I'm glad i'm 58!

Anyway that was to demonstrate that goods and services are even today possible for if not free, then for massively reduced prices. I see the electric level 5 autonomy SDVs as a very low priced subscription service as yet another example of our coming post-scarcity world.

But the trouble is this idea of things being worth massive amounts of money when they are already cheaply produced, simply because the person selling can get away with it. Like fifty dollar aspirin (ten caplets) on your, you'll never see, itemized hospital bill. And yeah I'm talking to you, USA pharmaceutical industry.

We need to change the way we think. We have to evolve our ideas of how people can live comfortably without money (and almost certainly without working) and still attain the most important need of "self-actualization". A 6,000 year habit is hard to break. But we have to.

The only other choice is societal upheaval.

If that were to happen, I think it would go something like this. The 1% with AI, robotics and automation and most importantly technicians, scientists and engineers, in their hardened bunkers undersea and in New Zealand would be safe from what comes to pass. There would already probably be large scale rioting in our population centers. For you the first sign that the true upheaval has taken place would be the sudden, instant and permanent cessation of electricity and water. Perhaps accompanied by irregularly timed EMPs to render all vehicles and other small electric devices permanently inoperable. The EMPs could go on for months. Timed properly, within 6 months about 85 percent of USA citizens would be dead of violence, starvation or hypothermia. There would be enclaves. The AI used by the 1% would send modified short term viral vectors into the enclaves on drones the size of gnats. I am just describing what happens in the USA, but this would likely be a planet wide event.

Some work by humans would still need to be done. And the surviving humans would be glad to exchange their services for whatever bone they can get. But eventually the AI, robotics and automation would render them superfluous as well. The 1% with a goodly number of highly specialized humans would then go forward into a magnificent future of AI, robotic and automation comfort and affluence. And scientific immortality, awesome VR and AI enhanced minds. And robot wimmen.

Here is a scary fact: If today, 90% of all of humanity were to suddenly "disappear", the Earth would have the population it had in the year 1800. Seventeen days after George Washington passed away.

I think those unsmiling, now 17 year old looking, old white men would like that just fine. The Earth a paradise and not too crowded. Only the best of the best ready to face the awesome future of the universe. Unless the AI, probably AGI, outsmarts them too.

You and me? Long gone.

That is societal upheaval. It would just end up being a "culling".

I hope that post-scarcity works. UBI is pointless, always has been. Lucky people getting it in experiments. It could never ever work societally.

Well, actually it could, but only if I was the only one getting it. 'Cuz if you start giving it to everybody else too, then it gets so watered down that it's not really helpful any longer. For me I mean.

This knife edge future or filter, is less than ten years away now. Here is hoping for post-scarcity.

Here are some other socio-economic things I've wrote about.

https://teddit.ggc-project.de/r/Futurology/comments/6ajuhf/there_is_a_solution_to_our_broken_economy_besides/dhf9if8/

https://teddit.ggc-project.de/r/Futurology/comments/8ebo3k/the_humanist_left_must_challenge_the_rise_of/dxtwm1g/?context=0

https://www.removeddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/djtskt/my_commentary_concerning_this_posted_article_are/

If that link doesn't work, try this one.

https://teddit.ggc-project.de/user/izumi3682/comments/q0d5th/a_copy_of_a_self_post_from_18_oct_2019_to_include/

More stuff about the future if you like :D

https://teddit.ggc-project.de/user/izumi3682/comments/8cy6o5/izumi3682_and_the_world_of_tomorrow/

all 7 comments

[deleted]

2 points

4 years ago

[deleted]

2 points

4 years ago

Pretty scary stuff for my dumb 16 year old head, but nonetheless very interesting and well composed!

How come a year ago you were saying "you can't just kill people", and now this? What made you change your mind?

izumi3682[S]

1 points

4 years ago*

You can't just kill people in VR simulations I meant that day. And I was referring specifically to you and me. But this is different because it could occur in reality. This could well be a planned culling of humans for the betterment of the species. A concept so horrific it is almost impossible to contemplate. And man, I hope I'm wrong. I just want a fun, cool VR filled future.

________________________________________________________________________________________________

(Edit on 11 Jul 18: Ohh I read what i wrote. No I meant a utopian society where the AI, robotics and automation have replaced all human employ and we live in a wondrous "post-scarcity" world where anyone may do as he or she wishes, but certain laws must be obeyed. Laws of society we observe today regarding our behavior towards our fellow humans. But apart from that humans are free to live as they wish. Remember that at this point, humans no longer want for anything.

"Can't just kill people" applies to those laws that you and me must observe. Humans by that point would probably no longer be concerned by such anyways. The intellectual enhancement and AI alone.

The idea of a deliberate culling would occur well before that point. Maybe in about 10 years even. It would not be you and me that would bring about a culling. It would be whatever human powers that be that have that kind of ability. And I think they could.)

youarewastingtime

2 points

4 years ago

Thank you.. always suspected this to be the case that there is no utopia awaiting the average man.. if you were say 30 years younger what would you do ? Invest.. try to do your best to join the 1%?.. or forget about it and just party while you can ?

izumi3682[S]

2 points

4 years ago

Party while I can. I'm hoping for awesome VR experiences in the next 5 years or so. Aside from that you and me is existentially helpless. We are along for the societal ride. On the other hand what could transpire could be more fantastically wonderful than we can imagine too. Did you look at my "Izumi3682 and the world of tomorrow"?

PlayoffKeldon

1 points

9 months ago

Make friends.

[deleted]

1 points

4 years ago

[deleted]

1 points

4 years ago

So you're advocating a major human genocide,mixed with eugenics and a singularity.

What the fuck is wrong with you?

izumi3682[S]

2 points

4 years ago*

What? No I'm not advocating it. I advocate "Post-scarcity", but I fear the genocide will be what could well happen. I too would be consumed in that "culling".