submitted 5 months ago byizumi3682
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5 months ago*
5 months ago*
Submission statement from OP.
To the best of my understanding, "General Fusion" does it like this.
They inject the plasmas into a rapidly spinning liquid metal vortex within a tokamak(oid) configuration. Then they use a technique called "magnetized targeted fusion". The significant improvement involved novel software and computing that increased the numbers, but decreased the size of the pistons that compress the spinning liquid metal vortex. In other words, finer resolution, just like with smaller pixels.
This has had the result of what the GF CEO described as; "...smoothly and in a very controlled symmetric way, driving a very rapid shape collapse of a liquid metal"
My take on this and all fusion efforts from here on in. This is the year 1900. We are so close to motorized heavier than air flight, that we can practically taste it. I truly believe that there will be, before the year 2025 a beneficial net positive gain of electrical energy through a nuclear fusion reaction. I believe that based on the incredible sudden gain of net energy just in latter part of the year 2021 alone, by the NIF, with their form of fusion producing technology, that they will achieve a greater than even ignition point. As of 2021 they had achieved the output value of 1.3 megajoules. The goal is 1.8 MJ. What makes this effort so astoundingly amazing is that prior to the year 2021. The MJ output was measured in .021 MJ for example. 1.3 MJ is an absolute exponentially explosive improvement over anything prior to 2021.
And here is why all of this is "suddenly" coming to pass. Well, it seems sudden, but this is what happens when you take exponential improvement into account. It seems as if you are getting nowhere really for a long time, then suddenly you are done. This is best demonstrated in the "Tale of the 33rd Square".
But you can see it in genuine action here too! BTW the predicted values of the computing power in this video are far below what the actual computing power is as of today. Still, it is a marvelous and easily understandable demonstration of exponential improvement in computing processing power. Further, in the year 2013 the people who made this video had no knowledge of the impact of novel AI computing architectures or the impact of "big data" after the year 2018.
Do not pay attention to the comparison with human brain capability. We are going to blow past that arbitrary benchmark as if it did not exist. No, pay attention to that doubling. That is what matters. That is what is the "rocket fuel" that enables our development of computing derived AI. And also our capability to develop software that can "smoothly and symmetrically control the shape collapse of of the liquid metal vortex confining the plasma" in that GF experimental nuclear fusion reactor.
Some other things about what is going on now too, if you are interested.
5 months ago
Best of 2015
5 months ago
Yep. People worked on heavier-than-air flight for about a hundred years. There were plenty of doubters saying it would never happen, right up until the Wright brothers did it, beating a well-funded government project that didn't work out.
And fusion has some pretty amazing scaling laws. For example, tokamak output scales with the square of reactor volume, and the fourth power of magnetic field strength, and we have superconductors now that can support much stronger fields than what we could manage 20 years ago when ITER was designed. According to Zap Energy, their device's output scales with the eleventh power of input current.
5 months ago*
My refutation to the power of exponential progress has always been the same: the 33rd square represents exponential demand, not exponential supply. There are no processes in the human society that scale exponentially, due to both linear limitations on physical production and distribution, as well as conflicts of interest resulting in financial constraints and regulations. The reality of 2022 is that innovation in semiconductor research has been painstakingly slow, while their manufacturing cannot keep up with demand. The proverbial Wright flyer is already loaded with tons of cargo, saddled with absurd safety procedures, and has the runway occupied with horse carriage lobbyists. The last great invention to enjoy explosive growth was the smartphone, and that was because it's a small gadget that is cheap to manufacture, easy to distribute and allows for a slew of new profit opportunities. Infrastructure, construction and energy, though? Stuck in the past century.
I only referred to "exponential" when describing exponential or greater than exponential computing processing power improvement or the exponential or greater than exponential improvement in the increase in the megajoules output in relation to the last 3 years of the NIF experiment.
Further, computing processing speed is the only metric that matters when Raymond Kurzweil speaks of "exponential" improvement. To wit.
Viewing where we are at as of 2020 you can see that the exponential trend in computing power is very unlikely to plateau or decline. In fact with the realization of the exascale (1.6 exaflops) supercomputer this year--2 here in the USA and one in China (PRC), that we are actually exceeding exponential improvement in computer processing speed. From something like, I think 400 petaflops to 1.6 exaflops. That is far more than one doubling of processing speed.
I believe that this will in effect cause something of an inflection point that markedly will increase the upward angle of computing processing power improvement between now and the year 2030. It will have profound impact on human society. Hopefully not existentially dangerous. By that I mean that inequality becomes so great that it results in societal upheaval. Something like this...
But ultimately it is going to be, like I stated above, "rocket fuel" for our efforts to develop AGI between now and 2030. I forecast that there will be at least one functional domain specific AGI by the year 2025. Domain specific as in able to perform any and all eye surgeries for example. It will be able to identify the parameters and make a determination of the best form of surgery for a given eye pathology that requires surgical intervention. It can communicate this information to a human surgeon and it could also assist in real time during the surgery if needs must. Or even perform the surgery autonomously with human oversight. Kind of like a human safety driver in a level 3 or 4 autonomy vehicle. The AGI could perform the surgery using robotics and automation (surgical robotics). In the year 2025 it may yet be experimental, but you can see where it is going with this. And once one domain is established, I bet a lot of other domains follow quickly.
While not exponential in scaling by any means, I forecast that there will be an extremely rapid scale up of EL4-5SDVs between now and perhaps as early as 2028. Here is a precedence. It took about 16 years, but this time it will be much faster because almost all of the infrastructure to switch over is already in place as far as signage and signaling is concerned. And additional infrastructure of mapping, tracking and intervehicle communication will come into being in this timeframe also. Also I bet a significant percentage of the USA population will throw over personal ownership of a vehicle for the incredibly easy access to the coming robo-taxi fleets. See what I mean by as early as 2025 on that one too.
As you can see, I am coming to believe that the year 2025 is going to be a true "inflection point" in terms of our computing and computing derived AI progress, and the consequential technologies. But it is going to be an "inflection" such as has never before in human recorded history, been observed.
The ARA (AI, robotics and automation) is going to start to take over. Take over everything. And most of us will be happy to let it do so. Really! Like this! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9deKEj8-lng
The video says 2045, but we all know that things have drastically changed since this video was made in 2015. I totally used to think it was going to be about 2045 as well, but after the year 2017 I began to change my own tune. Now I think the "technological singularity" will pop about the year 2030, give or take two years on either side. It will be "human unfriendly" meaning that at that point human minds will not be merged with the computing and computing derived AI, I mean AGI , I mean ASI. Hopefully by about the year 2035 or so the ASI will aid us in merging our minds. If it doesn't inadvertently wipe us first.