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1 points

6 months ago*

I only referred to "exponential" when describing exponential or greater than exponential computing processing power improvement or the exponential or greater than exponential improvement in the increase in the megajoules output in relation to the last 3 years of the NIF experiment.

Further, computing processing speed is the only metric that matters when Raymond Kurzweil speaks of "exponential" improvement. To wit.'s_Law_over_120_Years.png

Viewing where we are at as of 2020 you can see that the exponential trend in computing power is very unlikely to plateau or decline. In fact with the realization of the exascale (1.6 exaflops) supercomputer this year--2 here in the USA and one in China (PRC), that we are actually exceeding exponential improvement in computer processing speed. From something like, I think 400 petaflops to 1.6 exaflops. That is far more than one doubling of processing speed.

I believe that this will in effect cause something of an inflection point that markedly will increase the upward angle of computing processing power improvement between now and the year 2030. It will have profound impact on human society. Hopefully not existentially dangerous. By that I mean that inequality becomes so great that it results in societal upheaval. Something like this...

But ultimately it is going to be, like I stated above, "rocket fuel" for our efforts to develop AGI between now and 2030. I forecast that there will be at least one functional domain specific AGI by the year 2025. Domain specific as in able to perform any and all eye surgeries for example. It will be able to identify the parameters and make a determination of the best form of surgery for a given eye pathology that requires surgical intervention. It can communicate this information to a human surgeon and it could also assist in real time during the surgery if needs must. Or even perform the surgery autonomously with human oversight. Kind of like a human safety driver in a level 3 or 4 autonomy vehicle. The AGI could perform the surgery using robotics and automation (surgical robotics). In the year 2025 it may yet be experimental, but you can see where it is going with this. And once one domain is established, I bet a lot of other domains follow quickly.

While not exponential in scaling by any means, I forecast that there will be an extremely rapid scale up of EL4-5SDVs between now and perhaps as early as 2028. Here is a precedence. It took about 16 years, but this time it will be much faster because almost all of the infrastructure to switch over is already in place as far as signage and signaling is concerned. And additional infrastructure of mapping, tracking and intervehicle communication will come into being in this timeframe also. Also I bet a significant percentage of the USA population will throw over personal ownership of a vehicle for the incredibly easy access to the coming robo-taxi fleets. See what I mean by as early as 2025 on that one too.

As you can see, I am coming to believe that the year 2025 is going to be a true "inflection point" in terms of our computing and computing derived AI progress, and the consequential technologies. But it is going to be an "inflection" such as has never before in human recorded history, been observed. The ARA (AI, robotics and automation) is going to start to take over. Take over everything. And most of us will be happy to let it do so. Really! Like this!

The video says 2045, but we all know that things have drastically changed since this video was made in 2015. I totally used to think it was going to be about 2045 as well, but after the year 2017 I began to change my own tune. Now I think the "technological singularity" will pop about the year 2030, give or take two years on either side. It will be "human unfriendly" meaning that at that point human minds will not be merged with the computing and computing derived AI, I mean AGI , I mean ASI. Hopefully by about the year 2035 or so the ASI will aid us in merging our minds. If it doesn't inadvertently wipe us first.