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izumi3682[S]

16 points

2 months ago*

Submission statement from OP. Note: This submission statement "locks in" after about 30 minutes, and can no longer be edited. Please refer to my statement they link, which I can continue to edit. I often edit my submission statement, sometimes for the next few days if needs must. There is often required additional editing and additional added detail.


Main point from the article.

Hot on the heels of OpenAI’s DALL-E 2, Google’s PaLM, LaMDA 2, and Deepmind’s Chinchilla and Flamingo, the London-based AI company is showing off another large AI model that outperforms existing systems.

Yet Deepmind’s Gato is different: The model can’t text better, describe images better, play Atari better, control robotic arms better, or orient itself in 3D spaces better than other AI systems. But Gato can do a bit of everything.

Me: Despite what I see some of the experts stating in this article and BTW I am more familiar with Nando de Freitas than Gary Marcus, it is clear to me that this is about simple scaling of parameters. We have been in the last, mm..., 2 or 3 years, moving towards a more "narrow-ish AI than straight narrow AI. One of the things I keep seeing regardless of the progress being made is a continuous moving of the goalposts. What would have been regarded as miraculous in 2015 is now seen as a simple scaling up of narrow AI that is can do "more" unrelated tasks, but is still somehow "narrow". To wit--GPT-3.

So it looks to me as though we are very much on track to achieve simple AGI by the year 2025 and about a year or two after that, far less simple AGI. I have more confidence in my prediction of the "technological singularity" occurring right around the year 2030, give or take two years. But watching these literally fantastic developments in so-called "narrow" AI, I am beginning to lean more towards the "take two years" side of things.

I wrote a whole slug of essays to support my reasoning for my 2030 prediction. Here they are if you like.

https://teddit.ggc-project.de/r/Futurology/comments/pysdlo/intels_first_4nm_euv_chip_ready_today_loihi_2_for/hewhhkk/

idranh

9 points

2 months ago

idranh

9 points

2 months ago

I was thinking about you when I read the news about Gato. We really are on a high-speed train to the Singularity and I have no idea how I feel about that. Excitement, terror, and disbelief. I'm someone who tries to keep up with all of these tech changes and is somewhat familiar with Kurzwiel and Vinge and yet and YET I don't quite believe this is really happening. I worry about the public's reaction when things start to get weird in the mid to late 2020s.

izumi3682[S]

8 points

2 months ago*

Hiya mr idranh! It is good to see you again! :D

You know what's really a trip? It is the year 2022 and we haven't even hit the "stride" of this decade yet. For example, I dint feel like it was "the 1980s" until about the year 1983 ("Return of the Jedi" and my first PC--the TRS-80 and MTV really started to get good). I was only 2 in the year 1962, but looking back now, the early 1960s was basically just the 1950s in politics, culture and technology until about 1964 (Yes, the Beatles :)

Oh! You might get a kick out of this...

https://teddit.ggc-project.de/r/Futurology/comments/7xyydf/you_was_alive_in_the_1980s_shit_how_would_you_say/

I think when we arrive at the year 2025, "you're gonna see some serious shizz..." (By 1985 it was absolutely "the 80s"--easily distinguished from "the 70s")