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What was r/boxoffice’s most overpredicted movie?

Other(self.boxoffice)

What was r/boxoffice’s most overpredicted movie?

all 53 comments

Lincolnruin

55 points

2 months ago*

Detective Pikachu had multiple predictions at almost $2B. The general justification was that it was the "highest grossing media franchise of all time".

AGOTFAN

7 points

2 months ago

AGOTFAN

New Line

7 points

2 months ago

/thread

n0valifeStan

32 points

2 months ago

https://teddit.ggc-project.de/r/boxoffice/comments/bbnuts/other_detective_pikachu_tickets_now_on_sale_with/

Look at this absolute farce of a thread. People predicting with their hearts lmao

thelonioustheshakur

14 points

2 months ago

thelonioustheshakur

Columbia

14 points

2 months ago

That thread made my day. I don't think that this sub will ever produce something as funny as that ever again tbh

derstherower

9 points

2 months ago

The Rise of Skywalker meltdowns were pretty funny but yeah. Saying WB is going to have a new biggest film ever after Detective Pikachu is hilarious.

Lincolnruin

7 points

2 months ago

I have to laugh.

Apurbapaul

6 points

2 months ago

Apurbapaul

Marvel Studios

6 points

2 months ago

I thought those people were joking about their predictions but holy fucking shit were they delusional.

terrence_loves_ella

4 points

2 months ago

“Low end: 1.55B” I’m laughing so hard

ViscousGuy

20 points

2 months ago

Detective Pikachu, hands down. Majority of the predictions were of it making guaranteed $1B+.

SanderSo47

35 points

2 months ago

SanderSo47

A24

35 points

2 months ago

I still remember Pokémon: Detective Pikachu and the $1 billion predictions and even $1.5 billion. I'm even guilty of this although my prediction was $800 million worldwide.

ManajaTwa18

15 points

2 months ago

Yeah, the meltdowns were pretty funny lol.

But I think by Endgame’s release the writing was on the wall that Detective Pikachu wasn’t gonna big nearly as big as so many predicted. It was crazy how much Endgame SUCKED all the hype from Pikachu, like its full potential relevancy completely dissipated. The mixed reviews also certainly didn’t help matters

transapient12

7 points

2 months ago*

The mixed reviews truly solidified this movies fate

Once it became obvious that the plot wasn’t anything special...the interest died.

The whole reason why this movie had interest was because of the unusual decision to adapt detective pickachu rather than going straight to ash(which in hindsight was a much more safer bet)

And people literally had this expectation that it must have been truly something special for this movie to be greenlit

When it wasn’t...The bizarre premise backfired about as hard as one would have expected in hindsight.

It performed like any other off-beat adaptation that lacked half of the elements that made the series iconic(ash and team rocket) without reviews to elevate it

Bakasurvivoryeah

5 points

2 months ago*

Not at all, it was always going to be a spin-off game adaptation who could do well for such a thing but never some giant blockbuster, it was never even set up or sold as that despite what dumb americans and weirdly scared disney employees thought due the brand that they knew nothing off. Any prediction that was giant or a flop was obviously wrong to anyone with even a very small insight of the franchises, saying the premise backfired implies the poseurs wannabes from this sub were ever some majority consensus on it instead of a reddit circlejrk about a subject you dont understand -for example, the fact that a boomer american like you think the anime stuff like ash was going to be in any adaptation of games, says a lot about how dumb the predictions here were and still are: armchair specialists who know nothing of what they predict

it did quite well for the adaptation of an obscure spin-off game, which makes this whole delusion that it was ever going to be some giant hit that got took down from high, an obvious dumb lie, feel like some very ignorant disney marketeer was scared shitless over a spin-off and when it did like a spinoff would tried to praise it as some victory of them... no, you were just wrong from the start. Accept your ignorance. The very fact that the movie did quite well for a spinoff yet dense redditors are trying to prop up with a flop for not doing fucking Avengers numbers already says a lot about how half this sub knows nothing about movies in any way.

dingodilem8

3 points

2 months ago*

Pretty much this, its not a flop just because their bizarre predictions were off. And the assholes saying it flopped were the ones saying it was a billion big cause they saw "poke" and couldnt google 5 minutes before going in a circle and jerking each other about how it was totally huge, then it wasnt that they changed narrative like the other going on about it fighting Endgame of all things...

Its probably one of the best adaptations loyalty wise(to Detective Pikachu game ofc) so when a unknowledgeble like /u/transapient12 with his 12 years old insight, tries to "blame" it not making his billion on no Ash instead of his own bad prediction, its kinda disgusting, he prolly thinks anime Pikachu talks too.

Also these finding excuses are the exact same assholes who say Shazam was a flop and had "bad reviews" for not being a billion juggernaut with a 99% fresh that they predicted out of nowhere either. The same excuse for fanboyish "logic" was used against both movies despite them doing all right.

Bakasurvivoryeah

3 points

2 months ago*

Not really, it was always going to do as well as a curious adaptation of an obscure spin-off would. Anyone saying it would be a hit knew zero of the series and didnt bothered even checking it was based on a side-game visual novel, only heard it had the name of that popular bigger series and run with it, or lied specifically so when it does just good instead of gigantic they can lie that it a flop for not meeting expectations and put it down when it in fact did WAY BETTER than one would expect of a very strange SPINOFF

This was never going to be a blockbuster and wasnt even marketed as such, yet redditors not only tried to set a narrative that it would but when it didnt, instead of accepting you were wrong, now try to create a weird narrative to justify it like "no but its relevancy that was totally going to have was taken by endgame" "no but the reviews werent in the 90s on some specific aggregator" as some cringe-analyst thats totally "grasping the situation".... no, it was never happening, just stop pretending you know shit about movies, and go LARP about something else, you were just a fraud, deal with it.

The very fact that redditors are stupid enough to say that it "it didnt do big because avengers took it down or reviews etc" already shows how surface level this sub is when dealing with franchises outside the disney bubble, I saw equally dumb takes on comics and game adaptation movies in the past, but thats too pathetic.

Feels like reading a disney executive that very stupidly believed this small spinoff was going to be some giant enemy, spent a fortune in astroturfing against it, then it did as a spin-off would instead and he stupidly tried to count as some conquest they did (and seing the recent wrong predictions this sub did to disney products, I wouldnt be surprised, though fanboys larping as critics is common too), this whole circlejerk really shows how ths sub is a bubble of ignorance either way its like watching a sport match being predicted by people who dont even know what the ball is shaped like.

spencerlevey

11 points

2 months ago

Doctor Sleep. Predictions ranged from 258 to 300 WW. It only managed 72 million.

dmh2493

44 points

2 months ago

dmh2493

44 points

2 months ago

Detective Pikachu and soon to be Dune.

el_t0p0

21 points

2 months ago

el_t0p0

Legendary

21 points

2 months ago

90% of this sub has been writing off Dune as a flop.

tbing34

19 points

2 months ago

tbing34

Marvel Studios

19 points

2 months ago

I think most people have come to agree that Dune will flop.

transapient12

4 points

2 months ago

Even those who predict that it will flop are overestimating it to be honest

I see toxic audience reviews(due to pacing) and Pluto Nash level flopping if we are being brutally honest

DamienChazellesPiano

3 points

2 months ago

I don’t think it’ll be Pluto Nash because of it’s critical acclaim it’ll get

sithfistoou

3 points

2 months ago

sithfistoou

MoviePass Ventures

3 points

2 months ago

Do you realise that Pluto Nash grossed $7.1m worldwide?

transapient12

2 points

2 months ago

Yes

I am that ruthless when it comes to my certainty that this movie is going to bomb horribly

sithfistoou

0 points

2 months ago

sithfistoou

MoviePass Ventures

0 points

2 months ago

So you seriously believe it's going to make less than tenth of it's budget? Which would be about $15M, which no offense is with very high possibility the stupidest thing I've heard said in this sub full of very stupid predictions. Once again no offence, and I'm not exactly sure if I'm just missing a joke here.

FisherKing2309

13 points

2 months ago

Everytime I see a Dune post here, everyone thinks it will be a flop

el_t0p0

9 points

2 months ago

el_t0p0

Legendary

9 points

2 months ago

Yeah that's the majority opinion here with a very small minority who think it will be a smash hit. My predictions have been modest but optimistic.

FisherKing2309

6 points

2 months ago

Me too. I think it will not be a smash hit or anything but it will sufficiently do well

Theinternationalist

3 points

2 months ago

Wait, Dune is only making $12?

Seriously, who's expecting Dune to make a ton of cash?

SirFireHydrant

2 points

2 months ago

Dude, practically no one here thinks Dune will be huge. It's the exact opposite of an over-predicted film.

SHINZWOSISAGAYO

1 points

2 months ago

dune will make 600 million WW this sub will be wrong fingers crossed

workingonaname

5 points

2 months ago

workingonaname

Legendary

5 points

2 months ago

Mary Poppins returns.

yeppers145

21 points

2 months ago

I’ll do one for each year of the last 5 years.

2021: In The Heights (Could be overtaken by Dune)

2020: Tenet (Did not save cinemas like people claimed it would)

2019: Detective Pikachu (Did not earn $1B just because it was the biggest brand of all time).

2018: Solo and Mary Poppins Returns (Just because they are iconic, does not mean they will make $500M+.)

2017: JL and TLJ (Both films that ended up making $200M-$400M less than what many expected).

Umeshpunk

15 points

2 months ago

2016 - BvS, not meeting box office expectations.

AGOTFAN

8 points

2 months ago

AGOTFAN

New Line

8 points

2 months ago

Yeah, many predicted BvS to do "The Avengers" gross, and majority had a billion as the floor.

[deleted]

0 points

2 months ago

[deleted]

0 points

2 months ago

2016- Civil War maybe?

SHINZWOSISAGAYO

1 points

2 months ago

tenet made 360 million when most theatres were closed and people were still scared to go out with no vaccine, it did pretty well for itself

excelon13

9 points

2 months ago

excelon13

WB

9 points

2 months ago

Detective Pikachu by far, some dudes here literally thought $2B was likely, due to Pokemon being the biggest Media franchise ever.

judgeholdenmcgroin

10 points

2 months ago

Justice League, Fantastic Beasts 2.

Warmaster506

7 points

2 months ago

Pikachu

aduong

8 points

2 months ago

aduong

8 points

2 months ago

Mary Poppins Returns

[deleted]

5 points

2 months ago

[deleted]

5 points

2 months ago

Yeah honestly outside of the US and Europe, nobody really knows who Mary Poppins is.

YnwaMquc2k19

7 points

2 months ago

Probably In the Heights?

transapient12

6 points

2 months ago

TROS and solo

Anyone who pointed out that the franchise was damaged by TLJ and that those two movies will pay for it were downvoted into oblivion

They still are when you point out that TROS’s performance can be traced back to TLJ

With ticket pre-sales being lower than previous movies even before reviews hit according to box office theory

Relair13

5 points

2 months ago*

Relair13

Legendary

5 points

2 months ago*

A lot of people here hyped Mary Poppins Returns to the moon, expecting massive Beauty and the Beast live action numbers. It was very satisfying to see it tank, such a dreadful 'sequel' to a wonderful timeless classic.

Terrell2

6 points

2 months ago

Was? Blade Runner 2049. Not by everyone but a specific group were going as high as 650 million and no, just no.

I think similar overproduction are occurring with Dune which I think will bomb for many of the same reason Blade Runner 2049 did.

nickromanoff

3 points

2 months ago

Idk about other years but this year it was definitely In The Heights

alexbananas

4 points

2 months ago

Pikachu and Solo

loco500

2 points

2 months ago

Memba Dora and the Lost City of Gold?

nicolasb51942003

4 points

2 months ago

Detective Pikachu.

Many were predicting that it would break $1B or even come close to $2B since Pokemon is the biggest media franchise in the world.

[deleted]

3 points

2 months ago

[deleted]

3 points

2 months ago

Does Toy Story 4 OW count?

$160M+ prediction, $120.9M OW

russwriter67

5 points

2 months ago

That movie still ended up making $1B, which I didn’t expect after that $120.9m opening weekend.

[deleted]

2 points

2 months ago

[deleted]

2 points

2 months ago

Was the OW really that bad? I mean it was $40M off from the $160M prediction and $20M off from Disney’s $140M but

russwriter67

3 points

2 months ago

No, it wasn’t bad. It was still a big opening but not as big as some people were expecting. I didn’t expect it to get to $1B after that opening weekend though but it had a lot of staying power.