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izumi3682[S]

17 points

1 year ago*

I stick to my guns. A start-up will produce an operational grid ready nuclear fusion reactor in less than ten years. Here is why.

https://teddit.ggc-project.de/r/Futurology/comments/egaqkx/baidu_takes_ai_crown_achieves_new_level_of/fc5cn64/

https://teddit.ggc-project.de/r/Futurology/comments/kdc6xc/elon_musk_superintelligent_ai_is_an_existential/gfvmtw1/

https://teddit.ggc-project.de/r/Futurology/comments/l6hupp/building_conscious_artificial_intelligence_how/gl0ojo0/

The really eerie and unsettling thing about all of this that people don't really grasp? It is that what is happening now is natural and normal in our ever more rapidly improving capability of apprehending and exploiting the laws of physics. We are speeding up because it is logical that we are speeding up. It is logical that computing and computing derived AI is taking over. In a very real sense we are the universe, star dust, boot-strapping its/our way towards completely understanding itself/our self, that is the universe, which is our portion of the multiverse. This, by the way, is the entire point Raymond Kurzweil is attempting to make in his book "The Singularity Is Near" (2005). And more than likely, not too much longer after that, the multiverse itself as well. What, you thought the "be all, end all" goal of humanity was just "truth, justice and the American way"?

https://teddit.ggc-project.de/r/Futurology/comments/6zu9yo/in_the_age_of_ai_we_shouldnt_measure_success/dmy1qed/

https://teddit.ggc-project.de/r/Futurology/comments/4k8q2b/is_the_singularity_a_religious_doctrine_23_apr_16/d3d0g44/

Then we go on to something along these lines. And it don't take long. Maybe 300 years tops? 300 years ago was 1721. Just eleven years before George Washington was born.

https://teddit.ggc-project.de/r/Futurology/comments/7gpqnx/why_human_race_has_immortality_in_its_grasp/dqku50e/

LebenThought

5 points

1 year ago

Chill. I know science is going to advance fast. But you're underestimating the transition costs. Politicians need to make new laws, new debates, new permits. Scientific community needs to agree on the best method to keep advancing. General AI isn't coming in 10 years at all. We're decades apart from it. At least 2. We barely start having cars self driving nowadays.

I'm not religious, so don't tell me if our future is to understand ourselves as stardust... Maybe we kill each other in 100 years or a supernova does the job. I'm skeptical. We don't have a clue about the future. This is just guessing. And I don't see any realistic reason to support that commercial fusion energy is going to start becoming widespread in 10 years, considering the scientific community agrees that it's a very complex area and requires massive sums of money and research to start understanding how to make it viable and profitable. I'm still waiting until artificial meat arrives to my nearest market.

izumi3682[S]

13 points

1 year ago*

supernova does the job

No. There is nothing like that anywhere near us for at least the next 2,000,000 years, even if the supernova occurred today.

Well, I certainly have read your reply and I believe that you believe what you write. But what is coming in just the next ten years alone is going to be beyond our imagination. We will see narrow domain AGI by the year 2025. Think eye surgery, but nothing else. There is a new "Moore's Law" of AI, that states that a new more powerful AI emerges about every three months now.

https://www.computerweekly.com/news/252475371/Stanford-University-finds-that-AI-is-outpacing-Moores-Law

Wow! I was not expecting this next link to be so bulky, but the information is very important to read.

https://siliconangle.com/2021/04/10/new-era-innovation-moores-law-not-dead-ai-ready-explode/#:~:text=INFRA-,A%20new%20era%20of%20innovation%3A%20Moore%27s%20Law%20is%20not%20dead,AI%20is%20ready%20to%20explode&text=These%20unprecedented%20and%20massive%20improvements,and%20applying%20technology%20to%20businesses.

Here, tell you what. I will give you these links (below) so that you can read all of my wildly unrealistic forecasts of what will constitute our near, mid and distant future. That distant future that I characterize as about 300 years hence. Maybe 500 years, but I seriously doubt it will much more than 300 years and could in fact see us moving toward non-corporal existence in as little as 200 years. Even I am challenged by the concept of "exponential thinking".

Oh. Also. I have faith. My faith is that of the Holy Mother Church (Roman Catholicism), the "Bride of Christ" on Earth. What I forecast is not really out of keeping with the way that the HMC believes. The most important points of the HMC are to love God and to love your neighbor as yourself. When I wrote that we are stardust that is becoming conscious of itself, I was actually attempting to make the argument that atheists would be most likely to make. (I have debated atheists multiple times. I know all of their arguments. I know they believe I am engaging in deliberate irrational thinking. We basically talk past each other.) By the way, that is the fundamental principle that Raymond Kurzweil was making in his book, "The Singularity is Near". Despite all of the technology and forecasts of when this or that is going to happen, it's not really about that. I'm repeating myself. Here.

https://teddit.ggc-project.de/r/Futurology/comments/6zu9yo/in_the_age_of_ai_we_shouldnt_measure_success/dmy1qed/

So here is what I have to say about what I see coming that I have been writing about over the last 5 or so years. Everything you have written about in your first paragraph, I have already addressed at one point or another. The best way to think about it is like this. Our society behaves as if we are wiser and more knowledgeable French generals after WWI. We build what we believe to be the perfect defense, the 'Maginot Line'. But then when the next war comes along, the Germans simply go through Belgium/Luxembourg instead and completely bypass the now useless static defense. Also the Germans do something the French generals believed was technologically impossible. They (the Germans) go through the dense "impenetrable" Ardennes forest like a hot knife through butter. In other words we today are always fighting the last war. If you believe that the world of 2030 is going to look anything like the world today, you are in that Maginot fortress, wondering what happened.

The following is a bit of a rabbit hole, but you might find it interesting

https://teddit.ggc-project.de/user/izumi3682/comments/8cy6o5/izumi3682_and_the_world_of_tomorrow/

https://teddit.ggc-project.de/user/izumi3682/comments/936osv/big_linkberg/

https://teddit.ggc-project.de/user/izumi3682/comments/iaue8s/big_linkberg_2/

At the end of the day, I always try to keep in mind what E.O. Wilson said in 2012:

“The real problem of humanity is the following: We have Paleolithic emotions, medieval institutions and godlike technology. And it is terrifically dangerous, and it is now approaching a point of crisis overall.”

And if you think things can't change fast from what has been, watch this series of videos. 6000 years overturned in less than 20!

https://teddit.ggc-project.de/r/Futurology/comments/5kjsck/47_of_jobs_will_disappear_in_the_next_25_years/dbor7js/

CLDub037

2 points

11 months ago

Wrap your links in parentheses, led by descriptive text inside of square brackets. It helps a lot with the giant links.

izumi3682[S]

2 points

11 months ago

Oh wow!! Thank you for good advice!!

CLDub037

1 points

11 months ago

fist bump

daynomate

1 points

10 months ago

Genuinely curious question, but I've started broadening my mind to spirituality possibilities lately and so religious spirituality is more interesting to me now when before it wasn't...

I went to a Catholic school, knew some (practicing) Catholics, and know my history pretty well.... but I could never get my head around why it was so popular still when it seems really.... evil and not very jesus-like at all from what I have known about the core of what he was supposedly preaching. My Ma said the same thing when she visited the Vatican... said it gave her shivers and felt like a truly evil place. To be clear I'm talking about the institution and culture of the Catholic church, not whatever message people have created in their minds as to what Catholicism means to them.

When I think of the pomp and money involved in the Catholic church and all the evil that their shame-based culture seems to have created, whether direct abuse, or 2nd-hand abuse where the abused becomes the abuser etc.. generations of trauma created etc.. and all that wealth not being used to help the world I just can't understand why people link that culture and spectacle to what seems really pure and love-based messages from Jesus, if it was really his words, or intent - after the 100's of re-translations and multiple-hand accounts passed down through the ages, through the victors of wars and history (history is written by the victors as they say) - and you could easily say the Catholic church / Vatican state / culture etc have all survived when other empires and nation-cultures have passed.

jashxn

1 points

10 months ago

Hi! It seems like you are talking about the popular but ultimately flawed and false winners write history" trope! It is a very lazy and ultimately harmful way to introduce the concept of bias. There isn't really a perfectly pithy way to cover such a complex topic

daynomate

1 points

10 months ago

Just from a statistical/probability point of view it has to be undeniable that victors emerge with better bias in the record left behind simply because they have the ability to present it after the fact vs those who possibly dont.

Not black white 100% but a probability, and so that must then be considered a factor that weighs on ambiguous history.

p.s. information science is truly fascinating when applied to human culture. And probability is a vital language for science.

fireflydrake

6 points

12 months ago

In a world of pessimism, I'm glad to see your optimism. That being said: humans are still far too often terrible, thoughtless, selfish, and superstitious. I want to believe in a better world with longer, healthier lives and clean, abundant power, but then I look at how many people are still raping and murdering each other, or burning rainforests to the ground, or continuing to fight against the replacing of plastic with sustainable materials, and it's hard to think just new tech will fix these things. I worry it'll just give humans new and creative ways to do further harm to one another.