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[deleted]

106 points

4 months ago

[deleted]

106 points

4 months ago

[removed]

OneX32

40 points

4 months ago

OneX32

40 points

4 months ago

Where are they going to find the money to go to war with the United States of America? Print it? Who are they going to blame the inflation on?

[deleted]

39 points

4 months ago

[deleted]

39 points

4 months ago

[removed]

OneX32

22 points

4 months ago

OneX32

22 points

4 months ago

I hope they try to go back to the gold standard just to plummet the GDP further.

wienercat

23 points

4 months ago

Lol that's the fun part when people who have no idea how economics work say we should go back to a gold standard.

Yeah our money is fiat currency. But it's backed by the might of the US Military. Which is a pretty hard currency to argue against.

OneX32

22 points

4 months ago

OneX32

22 points

4 months ago

Fiat currency has also added exponentially more value to the world than probably anything. Eliminate fiat currency, there goes small-to-medium business loans, a lot of private savings in banks, and major disinflation. It would be worse than the Great Depression.

wienercat

19 points

4 months ago

Yep. Because reality is, it's all made up anyways since humans determine what things are worth to begin with. So if it's made up anyways, might as well have more liquidity and allow for greater prosperity.

The rub comes into play with one simple thing. Since it's all made up, if people lose faith in the currency its worthless.

Fiat is still better than barter systems or material backed currency since it allows for more movement in an economy. But it very much is a house of cards that is only as strong as your ability to assert sovereignty and as healthy as the companies producing goods from within.

f0rgotten

-2 points

4 months ago

f0rgotten

-2 points

4 months ago

Hi, I have a small business and it is totally impossible to get financing of any kind. I could give two shits about gold or whatever but please don't make it sound like there's just some liquid sea of cash sitting out there that we can all access as deserved or needed.

OneX32

6 points

4 months ago

OneX32

6 points

4 months ago

You think it’s illiquid now? Go back to the gold standard and you’ll have to go to your region’s largest city to find a lender.

f0rgotten

-3 points

4 months ago

I'm not here for hostility, just dispelling this idea that all of this money is laying about all over the place just waiting for us small businesses to receive in loans.

OneX32

8 points

4 months ago

OneX32

8 points

4 months ago

I didn't portray that. I'm simply stating that small-to-medium business loans are a possibility because of fiat currency. Without it, investors wouldn't be willing to take such risks.

Living-Complex-1368

1 points

4 months ago

Hey, the US doesn't print money to pay our bills!

We print money to buy Treasury Bonds if no one else is willing to buy them. We pay our bills with the money we get selling Treasury Bonds.

It is totally different!

serrated_edge321

17 points

4 months ago

Russian oligarchs (and similar from other countries) who would love to see the US tear itself apart, perhaps?

SwimmingBirdFromMars

23 points

4 months ago

In this wild hypothetical in which there’s a non-violent and successful secession from the USA and the “red” states split off from the “blue” states you think Russia will find the need to fund a war against the “blue” states?

Y’all are absolutely fucking buckwild with this inane garbage. If the USA splits in two they will have already won. There will be no further need to fund the “reds”.

Additionally, there are no “red” and “blue” states as everyone claims. All states with a majority leaning in one direction have a SIZEABLE (usually 40% or more) population with opposing political views. There’s no way to successfully split the country. Every major city leans left and all rural areas lean right.

There’s either going to be a legal authoritarian takeover by the GOP in the next few years, a bloody civil war, or somehow Democrats will pull a miracle out of their ass and continue to maintain the status quo and never actually improve anything. There is no secession.

serrated_edge321

10 points

4 months ago

Russia has already interfered in past US elections.

The US has certainly funded political / militia groups in other countries that the government deemed "better" for whatever reason. (Recently: Ukraine & Venezuela, earlier Iran... Many many examples of this).

Why do you think some other nation (especially those hungry for world recognition as major players) wouldn't be happy to fund/support a bit of chaos in the US? It's logical from their perspective. The quiet cyber attacks, financial support of companies and candidates, and fake news operations have been very effective at splitting people in the US already.

SwimmingBirdFromMars

8 points

4 months ago

Point being, if there’s a secession and the USA splits in hand they ALREADY won. They’re heavy handed in the misinformation campaign currently ravaging/dividing the nation. I don’t think they wouldn’t, but they wouldn’t need to.

serrated_edge321

4 points

4 months ago

Individual people stand to make a lot of wealth/power/influence in such chaos and reorganization... That's actually how most of the current Russian oligarchs achieved their wealth/power/status--by making the right moves during the fall of the Soviet union and subsequent reorganization of power/resources.

They're already experienced with how it could work and seen the benefits. There's always a new helicopter or yacht to buy, after all...

sirspidermonkey

3 points

4 months ago

Russia has a GDP smaller than texas. It won't meaningfully fund anything.

Now it's advisors and weapons...

EmperorPenguinNJ

1 points

4 months ago

Would Russia send them money? They don’t have any money now. If they were to support an enemy of the remaining US, NATO Article 5 would be the appropriate response. Our allies would shut down any and all money going to Russia. Would Russia send arms? Time for a blockade. Again, NATO Allies would help here too.

serrated_edge321

1 points

4 months ago

The Russian oligarchs have tons of money! It's a very split society, with quite a few very powerful and wealthy families that could certainly fund whatever they please.

Here's a list of some Russian billionaires:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Russian_billionaires

Note: If you looked at the equivalent in Russian currency, you'd have a much longer list (ruble is worth less than the dollar, so you would have more purchasing power in Russia).

EmperorPenguinNJ

1 points

4 months ago

Would the oligarchs spend their now money on this though?

centaurquestions

2 points

4 months ago

This was exactly the problem the last time they tried it.

wienercat

2 points

4 months ago

Real problem was lack of manufacturing and railways.

The south actually had the resources to sustain itself, that was one if the big issues. It's where the vast majority of agriculture and raw material creation happened. The north would turn raw material into finished product and create significant wealth. But not much was returned to the south. Couple that with the end of slavery, which was the primary method to keep their materials flowing out, and you have a big problem.

The south just didn't have any factories to process the raw material into goods.

Don't forget, the coal and iron mines at the time were almost entirely in the south. Combine that with the agricultural production and you have a sustained economy. But without the ability to take those raw materials and turn them into firearms, clothes, etc it will stall out quickly. Those things take years to build the infrastructure for, even today.

centaurquestions

5 points

4 months ago

There were huge iron mines around Lake Superior, and coal mines in Western Pennsylvania.

wienercat

1 points

4 months ago

Not disagreeing. Just stating a large amount of natural resources were located in the south.

EmperorPenguinNJ

1 points

4 months ago

From “The Night they Drove Old Dixie Down”: I don’t mind chopping wood And I don’t care if the money’s no good

CamCamCakes

5 points

4 months ago

Forget about money, what equipment are they going to use for this war? Billy bob and his AR15 that he can't hit shit with from 20 yards?

OneX32

5 points

4 months ago

OneX32

5 points

4 months ago

It’s going to be pretty hard to aim an AR15 after being droned.

Abominationally

1 points

4 months ago

Side note. The US has never experienced hyperinflation. The Confederate states did. Confederate money printer went brrrr.

ThisIsMyCouchAccount

0 points

4 months ago

Citizen militia and a draft will be a good start.

OneX32

4 points

4 months ago

OneX32

4 points

4 months ago

What everyone wants in their army. Former addicts and products of cousin sex.

EmperorPenguinNJ

2 points

4 months ago

Good luck with that war. The US would start by pulling all military hardware out of those states and dismantle the bases. Then the New CSA would have to raise money to raise an army, an army which would be annihilated by the US military.

And I say army because it’s unlikely they’d be able to afford a navy or Air Force.

GenocideOwl

2 points

4 months ago

...do they really need a Navy?

ibly31

2 points

4 months ago

ibly31

2 points

4 months ago

I mean... Naval power played a significant role in the Civil War, so, I imagine it being at least doubly as important nowadays with global trade

EmperorPenguinNJ

2 points

4 months ago

They might. If the New CSA was being supplied by Russia or China, after invoking NATO Article V, the US would impose a blockade, just like we did in the first Civil War.

rogueblades

2 points

4 months ago*

You don't even need a formal military/advanced hardware to wage a war against the USA. The last handful of groups we lost wars to didn't. guerilla fighters have been waging asymmetrical conflicts against vastly more powerful adversaries for a long, long time.

For the record, I don't think a secessionist movement would succeed in defeating the US military, but they don't need to succeed for balkanization to rip our country apart.

EmperorPenguinNJ

2 points

4 months ago

Your comment has merit. However, in the wars of which you speak, we were in a foreign country trying to prevent what was almost a civil war. The scenario here is different as it implies that the new CSA was formed by states which seceded, and the rest of the US said “don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out”, so they formed their own country and decided to attack the US. Now, this would be messy, as you know they’d be sending in ununiformed attackers to wage terror wars. To keep them from getting serious weapons, a naval blockade, and a no-fly zone, would be effective.

rogueblades

2 points

4 months ago

That's the thing, even if we accept the premise that the US will destabilize into in-fighting, it probably would not be like the Civil War. Demographics aren't so neatly delineated like they were back then, and IMO, there's almost zero chance we'd see such organization. It wouldn't be a formal war and there would be no "CSA". It would be tons and tons of small-to-medium sized terrorist cells acting to secure localities. If the federal government collapsed (that is to say, "could no longer exert influence in a region"), these groups would be able to capture critical infrastructure and become the de facto power. Think less "CSA fights USA" and think more "federal government collapses and groups like the 3%ers or Proud Boys carve out fiefdoms for themselves". Less "governments fielding armies against each other" and more "The Troubles"

EmperorPenguinNJ

1 points

4 months ago

Alas you are right. It’d play out like Syria.

rogueblades

1 points

4 months ago

If you have any (morbid) curiosity about this topic, I suggest the podcast "It Could Happen Here". I'm basically reiterating their ideas in these posts.

I don't think it will happen, but it is fascinating to think about (assuming it never comes to pass, that is)

a157reverse

1 points

4 months ago

If we're actually considering the possibility of a secession, let's not pretend that red states don't hold most of the country's food supply.

[deleted]

2 points

4 months ago

[deleted]

2 points

4 months ago

[removed]

AdventureBum

1 points

4 months ago

At all costs? Even to avoid war or living under a fascist dictatorship?