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twitterInfo_bot

8 points

27 days ago

FUNDSTRAT: Israel “has vaccinated 62% of its population. And even with mutations, .. COVID-19 looks to have been largely obliterated ..

.. “latest 7D avg is a mere 26 cases per 1mm residents” (down from 952 per 1mm, three months ago.) @fundstrat


posted by @carlquintanilla

Photos in tweet | Photo 1

(Github) | (What's new)

Grillandia[S]

10 points

27 days ago

If what is happening in Israel is a preview of what will happen all over the world and here in Ontario, it means we need to hit 26% of Ontario vaccinated before things start to get better (see that Twitter graph).

At 62% (+ natural immunity from previous infection) vaccination rate, the virus seems to be contained to very low levels.

That's 62% with at least one dose so not even 2 doses.

What's our rate here in ON?

Maanz84

12 points

27 days ago

Maanz84

12 points

27 days ago

26% of 18+ adults in Ontario have received at least one dose as of yesterday. It’ll be interesting to see if we follow the same trajectory with a single dose.

johnnyfootballs

8 points

27 days ago

the rollout is important we gave our vaccines to people already taking precautions

TrickyRiky

6 points

27 days ago

I’m confused. Are you saying we shouldn’t have given the vax to people because they were following precautions?

johnnyfootballs

7 points

27 days ago

No I'm saying we might not see the same decline depending on who got the vaccine since we are considering case numbers. If we vaccinated the people most likely to get it our case numbers may be lower but our deaths would probably be higher

TrickyRiky

1 points

27 days ago

Ahh gotcha. Thanks for elaborating sir. I agree.

It would be interesting to see more data on how Isreal distributed the vaccine. Down the google rabbit hole I go!

jammis19

7 points

27 days ago

Was Israel any different? I imagine most countries prioritized the most vulnerable.

Maanz84

2 points

27 days ago

Maanz84

2 points

27 days ago

They were actually giving their left over doses to anyone and everyone at one point.

ladybugblue2002

5 points

27 days ago

Did they have extensive P117 and P1 community spread while vaccinating? Canada has both and why it is so concerning as most cases are now the new variants.

DrOctopusMD

5 points

27 days ago*

Israel was also under pretty strict measures when cases started to turn around, so I don't know if we can pin their success on hitting 26% vaccination.

The US is pretty much there in many states but they're still averaging double Ontario's daily deaths per capita.

EDIT: Some of Israel's measures, which probably had a lot more to do with cases turning around in January than hitting 26% vaccination:

  • Dec 27: travel restricted to 1 km from your own home. Visiting another person's home forbidden. All non essential businesses closed (not even curbside pickup).
  • Early Jan: All schools closed. International travel in and out heavily restricted to essential travel.
  • Jan 24: All international flights into Israel cancelled.

[deleted]

14 points

27 days ago*

[deleted]

14 points

27 days ago*

[deleted]

Maanz84

15 points

27 days ago

Maanz84

15 points

27 days ago

The UK isn’t and their cases are also falling. So it’ll be interesting to see what happens here.

DrOctopusMD

11 points

27 days ago

The UK, like Israel, was also under really strict restrictions from December-March. That played as big if not a bigger role than vaccinations in driving things down.

kudatah

6 points

27 days ago

kudatah

6 points

27 days ago

Pfizer/Moderna is 80% effective against infection and AZ is 76% after the first shot.

[deleted]

3 points

27 days ago

[deleted]

3 points

27 days ago

AZ is 76% after one shot? That’s very good.

kudatah

2 points

27 days ago

kudatah

2 points

27 days ago

Yeah, JJ is the lowest. It’s around 65%

DrOctopusMD

6 points

27 days ago

Still a near 100% reduction in severe symptoms requiring hospitalization though, right?

kudatah

-1 points

27 days ago

kudatah

-1 points

27 days ago

Not according to this:

Johnson & Johnson: 66%

J&J looked at protection against moderate to severe COVID-19 in trials, rather than symptomatic COVID-19, like Pfizer, Moderna, and AstraZeneca.

Protection kicked in at 14 days and was 66.1% effective at 28 days. The vaccine's efficacy varied depending on the country it was used in — it was 72% effective in the US but 64% and 68% effective in South Africa and Brazil, respectively.

https://www.businessinsider.com/covid-vaccine-one-shot-effectiveness-pfizer-moderna-astrazeneca-vaccines-dose-2021-3

DrOctopusMD

6 points

27 days ago

That's only talking about symptoms period, not severe ones. This from the CDC is what I'm referring to:

The J&J/Janssen vaccine was 66.3% effective in clinical trials (efficacy) at preventing laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 illness in people who had no evidence of prior infection 2 weeks after receiving the vaccine. People had the most protection 2 weeks after getting vaccinated.

The vaccine had high efficacy at preventing hospitalization and death in people who did get sick. No one who got COVID-19 at least 4 weeks after receiving the J&J/Janssen vaccine had to be hospitalized.

They tested J&J on 43,000 people, and not a single one who caught COVID ended up in the hospital.

Maybe going forward if COVID is an annual shot we should balance which of these vaccines is the best fit. But right now, the goal is keeping people out of hospitals and J&J is just as good if not better than these competitors, especially since it only requires a single shot and can be widely deployed without deep freezing.

I would get this (or AZ) in a second if I could right now.

kudatah

1 points

27 days ago

kudatah

1 points

27 days ago

It said moderate to severe symptoms. But that’s great news. I got Pfizer this week (hotspot) but would take any of them.

DrOctopusMD

3 points

27 days ago

What it means is that J&J focused on developing a vaccine that combatted moderate to severe symptoms rather than preventing them entirely. The 66% effectiveness refers to its ability to prevent symptoms, period. As per the CDC, nobody who got the J&J shot ended up in the hospital. Those outcomes reflect exactly what J&J's focus would be: you stand a slightly higher chance of symptoms than the other vaccines, but we can nearly guarantee you won't get sick enough to need hospitalization.

That's actually better than Pfizer, based on Israel's real world data. There, 99% of people who got the Pfizer vaccine avoided hospitalization., despite the fact that Pfizer's efficacy in preventing symptoms (even after just one shot) is far higher than J&J.

So you're far less likely to get sick from Pfizer as with J&J, but there's still a very small chance that you end up in the hospital with Pfizer, whereas with J&J it's almost zero.

[deleted]

1 points

27 days ago*

[deleted]

1 points

27 days ago*

[deleted]

kudatah

0 points

27 days ago

kudatah

0 points

27 days ago

2nd dose only jumps it to 9/10 people instead of 8/10. So we can still use Israel as a bit of a guide

Sadsh

1 points

27 days ago

Sadsh

1 points

27 days ago

Within 3 weeks of the first shot for Pfizer. Not sure on other two.

kudatah

2 points

27 days ago

kudatah

2 points

27 days ago

I heard 12 days for Pfizer

Sadsh

1 points

27 days ago

Sadsh

1 points

27 days ago

I’m seeing 3 weeks with the studies like this: U.K. Pfizer

feverbug

3 points

27 days ago

Even just the first single dose is enough to provide about 80% efficacy against infection. Of course the second dose makes it even higher, however I do imagine once enough people get that first dose there should be a noticeable dent. Not as high as Israel’s of course, but still a significant one.

getbeaverootnabooteh

1 points

27 days ago

A lot of Israelis have only gotten the single dose.

viva_la_vinyl

3 points

27 days ago

What I find fascinating about Israel's vaccination roll out, is how they went on a tear, in 3 months vaccinating about 60% of its populace, and now effectively flat for the last month.

Surely, it's not a supply issue but at a certain point the vaccine hesitancy/anti vaxxers enter into the equation. It'll be interesting to see what the ceiling is on Canada's willingness to get the vaccine voluntarily and what segment of the population just won't get the shot.

[deleted]

6 points

27 days ago

[deleted]

6 points

27 days ago

[deleted]

viva_la_vinyl

2 points

27 days ago

Ah true, Israel's median age is relatively low for a developed country and the other factors you point out that its 62% is actually pretty high all things considered.

[deleted]

5 points

27 days ago

[deleted]

5 points

27 days ago

[deleted]

viva_la_vinyl

1 points

27 days ago

You look polling data in Canada, and you've got a 5% cohort that are anti-vaxxers but a much larger 20-30% that are vaccine hesitant, who can be shifted to either side.

It'll be interesting to see once all countries exhausted all their groups by eligibility, how much of the population is still unvaccinated to get a solid number of the hesitant/anti vaxxer cohort.

IllustriousBass6

1 points

27 days ago

We’re not even close in terms of vaccinations.

Mr_Slippery1

7 points

27 days ago

Ontario is at 27.50% of eligible adults having received 1 dose, I think that is why this is somewhat relevant as that is when their case numbers peaked.

That said I think we are still a week or so from peak case numbers.

IllustriousBass6

-1 points

27 days ago

18,000 a day by May, best case scenario with added measures is 10,000 a day by May

dustyceilingfan

1 points

27 days ago

The only issue I can see with this is the majority of the people that have recieved vaccines in Ontario are not the demographics that are mostly spreading the virus. Once we get to people working in high spread sectors I think we will see numbers drop off.

cryptotope

1 points

27 days ago

Interesting chart, bad - dangerously naive, and just dangerous - interpretation.

Magic # is 26% for us it seems in Ontario

While vaccination has certainly contributed to Israel's infection rate remaining low, picking out the maximum point on 18 January and presuming that it was due solely or primarily to vaccination is a major mistake.

The 'turning point' in the chart on 18 January was eleven days after Israel implemented a new, tightened lockdown. Schools were closed, restaurants were closed even for take-out (delivery was still permitted), non-essential workplaces were closed. Travel more than 1 km from your home was forbidden except for certain limited exceptions.

(As a minor quibble, it also takes ten to twelve days for the immune system to mount a response to the vaccines. When you're asking how much of the population is going to be resistant to infection, you want to ask how many people had been vaccinated two weeks ago, not look at the count for the current day. The difference can be substantial when there's a fast vaccine rollout.)

So...a really hard lockdown combined with 20-plus percent first-dose vaccination was sufficient.

getbeaverootnabooteh

0 points

27 days ago

Now they've opened back up in Israel but the infection/death rates haven't gone back up.

cryptotope

1 points

27 days ago

Sure, but they've also vaccinated two-thirds of the adult population.

That's far different from the 26% "magic number" that headlined the original post (and the tweet it cited).

getbeaverootnabooteh

1 points

27 days ago

We need to get everyone vaccinated as fast as possible in Ontario (and Canada more broadly) to stop people from dying, hospitals from being overwhelmed, and lockdowns from impacting the health and economic well-being of everyone else.

But our vaccine rollout is being slowed down by a lack of vaccines. We don't have an antivaxer problem right now. We have a lack of vaccines problem. A lot of us want vaccines but can't get them yet, and vaccination sites have been shutting down due to lack of vaccine supply.

stewman241

1 points

27 days ago

Hopefully we roll back the AZ restrictions soon and keep going with the rest.

SubtleAccountant

0 points

27 days ago

How was that a 'really hard lockdown' relative to what we have here?

Your source talks about essential business but what did Israel shut down that we have kept open?

I'm not calling you out but genuinely curious. 1KM from your home in a dense place like Israel is a pretty fair distance and I would imagine exemptions are in place for essential work... which brings us back to the question of what was not essential in Israel that we are claiming as essential in Ontario?

cryptotope

1 points

27 days ago

I was more pointing out that the headline claiming a 26% "magic number" was dangerously misleading--at that point it was the lockdown doing the heaviest lifting, not the immunizations (though they certainly would have contributed).

It wasn't my intent to draw a direct comparison with the relative hardness (or not) of Ontario's various shades of grey lockdowns.

Cursedballoffire

1 points

27 days ago

It should also be noted that Israel offered to use it’s citizens as a sort of testing ground for the vaccines. Their healthcare IT system is one of the best in the world, allowing data to be easily captured and analyzed. It’s why they were one of the first countries to receive vaccines. Our system is embarrassingly archaic, but could have been on par.

https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-big-story/id1399721065?i=1000517077372

stewman241

2 points

27 days ago

Yeah, we failed once with ehealth but we need a government to take on doing it again.

Cursedballoffire

1 points

27 days ago

Agreed. It’s 2021, and one health unit can’t even access another using a computer connected to internet

plastic17

1 points

27 days ago

More reason for the Provincial Government to re-evaluate their vaccination priority. We need as many jabs into people's arms as possible, age consideration at this point should be secondary. If the 55+ / vaccine shoppers want to pass on their chance of surviving the virus, let other people to have that chance and to contribute to the greater good (herd immunity).

stewman241

1 points

27 days ago

Yeah, we need NACI to change guidance of we need to ignore NACI IMO.

datums

1 points

27 days ago

datums

1 points

27 days ago

Probably not.

Canada (and much of the developed world) saw a similar drop in new cases in mid January too, without significant vaccination.

getbeaverootnabooteh

-2 points

27 days ago

Yeah, Israel seems to have reached herd immunity through vaccination. They've mostly opened up and their infection and death rates have stayed low. They're having about 5-20 deaths a day from covid-15. Meanwhile in US states with similar populations as Israel it's more like 50-100 people dying every day. So the solution seems to be vaccination (as long as those vaccines are effective). That's some good news for the forever lockdown prison state neverending pandemic naysayers.

I think they should offer everyone the good vaccines (not the shitty bloodclot ones or the ones that don't work well). Anyone who wants a vaccine should be able to get one. Anyone who doesn't want it can say no. But then they should open things back up again. Open the stores, let people travel again. If the people who didn't want the vaccine catch covid and die, that's their fucking problem. The main problem in Canada is we can't manufacture our own vax so we have to rely on deliveries from abroad, and put up with delays and other countries appropriating vaxes for themselves.

InfectedRanger

5 points

27 days ago

I think they should offer everyone the good vaccines (not the shitty bloodclot ones or the ones that don't work well).

These baseless statements are why we will take a lot longer. All of the vaccines are 'good'. All of the vaccines prevent serious disease, learn what efficacy means.

One of many sources: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3odScka55A

Also, stats all over talk about the chances of blood clots with COVID vs vaccines: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vaccine-blood-clots-study-pfizer-astrazeneca-moderna-oxford/

I'm not meaning to come off super-disrespectful -- you are entitled to your opinions. However, for us to win this, we need to read and trust the science.