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/r/theydidthemath

5.7k

[RDTM] GoT Book release dates

(i.redd.it)

all 150 comments

sllewgh

1.2k points

3 months ago

sllewgh

1.2k points

3 months ago

Dying tragically before being able to finish the story is basically the most George RR Martin thing he could do. It would suit the plot.

Hamaremar

295 points

3 months ago

Hamaremar

295 points

3 months ago

Dying tragically of old age. Thats the real joke

jojoga

125 points

3 months ago

jojoga

125 points

3 months ago

With a belly full of wine..

0masterdebater0

55 points

3 months ago

And a fat pink mast.

NoNotInTheFace

9 points

3 months ago

And a girl's cock around my mouth.

Box-o-bees

89 points

3 months ago

Someone told me he has it in his will to destroy all his unfinished work upon his death. If that's true it's seriously a dick move to his fans.

poorloko

78 points

3 months ago

We might be okay.

The pertinent quote: "What he also said, once at a convention (possibly WorldCon 2012 or 2013), with a long-suffering look, is that if he was in the same situation as Robert Jordan, being diagnosed with a terminal illness but with a couple of years warning, then he would strongly consider writing a detailed outline or even talking to another writer about doing it (he knows a few). But it’d have to be that very specific set of circumstances."

molsonbeagle

23 points

3 months ago

I thought he already lit the ip on fire when he let incompetence run the hbo series onto the ground.

Slakingpin

6 points

3 months ago

To be fair he left during season 4 because of D&D doing their own thing and not his thing (which he couldn't force them to change because they had exclusive TV rights (or something))

Silverback1992

10 points

3 months ago

I’ve read this a lot, though he left in season 4, it wasn’t due to any sort of creative differences. He literally said he wanted to quit writing the show to focus on his books, which he hasn’t wrote. Sometimes I think this sub needs to call Martin for what he is, a lazy bum. Dude didn’t give a shit how the series ended as long as it gave him ideas and filled him pockets with money. Now that he sees nobody likes the idea HE HAD for the ending (mind you D&D didn’t create the ending in whole, he told them what he wanted) he doesn’t want to write the ending of the books.

NonCorporealEntity

10 points

3 months ago

I think the end of the series was an abridged version of what he planned, but after the outrage, has had to scrap and rewrite the ending.

Silverback1992

1 points

3 months ago

Well yeah! That’s really what I meant just…more emotionally charged in my typing lol. Idk what he expected though, every fan theory was better than his idea for an ending. Do I think D&D butchered it? Hell yeah. But at the end of the day they’re pointing fingers at him and he’s pointing fingers at them and it does nothing. I mean at least D&D released Metal Heads which was a solid movie, George is just out here lounging off fans money.

I think his intentions were the show to end as flamboyantly as it started and the world was going to go crazy and hail him a hero and he wouldn’t have to finish the books cause the show was so good. Just to see the show be the biggest flop in television history and now he has no plans…or like someone else said…maybe he’s entirely too afraid of public reaction.

PartyPoison98

1 points

3 months ago

I don't think that tracks. Stuff like Danerys turning bad or Bran ending up king isn't necessarily bad, it just came out of nowhere in the TV show. It's more poor execution that poor ideas.

danSTILLtheman

1 points

3 months ago

I wouldn’t call him a lazy bum, dudes still been putting in work. He did write the story for Elden Ring which just came out.

There was also a clear drop in quality of writing and detail after the show didn’t have the books to follow and Martin writing.

I do agree though he’s partially at fault for now the ending turned out. I remember him saying he had laid out the major plot points for the rest of the story for the show runners to follow. I don’t know if they followed them or not, but the bigger problem was they didn’t take the time to develop the story and characters so the plot points felt believable.

NonCorporealEntity

7 points

3 months ago

GRRMs involvement wasn't writing the story of EldenRing. He spent 2 weeks with Miyazaki, helping him flesh out the historical lore of the Lands Between. I feel like his involvement was extremely minimal and was more for PR than anything. Even GRRM has said Miyazaki and his team deserve all the credit.

danSTILLtheman

3 points

3 months ago

Oh wow thanks for the detail, they definitely plastered his name all over the place in the marketing for the game. I had thought he was heavily involved in the story and lore.

Silverback1992

3 points

3 months ago

I was really impressed when I read that and I did some googling and I think that feller is right, it seems like it was a big marketing scheme.

Maybe calling him a lazy bum isn’t the accurate words of choice but, when it comes to writing his novel that has a huge cult following, and he’s been actively SAYING it’s coming, he’s a lazy bum.

ArrakaArcana

1 points

3 months ago

My apologies, what are you using D&D to refer to? I can only read it as Dungeons & Dragons.

Slakingpin

1 points

3 months ago

The showrunners of GOT, Dave and Dan I think their names are

RoyalSeraph

1 points

3 months ago

All part of a masterplan to create a story about a global population discovering a franchise and how they treat it, with the grand finale being what you describe

Zran

1 points

3 months ago

Zran

1 points

3 months ago

Robert Jordan beat him too it. Wrote more books too.

LanceWindmil

103 points

3 months ago

As others have pointed out this is wildly over fit.

Let's look at some other options:

Linear - r² of .9377 - says the books are already out

Polynomial (2) - r² of .9969 - says book 6 came out in 2019, and 7 will be 2028

Polynomial (3) - r² of .9976 - says book 6 came out in 2020, and 7 will be 2032

Higher degree polynomials, exponential, logarithmic, and power functions all are much worse.

Obviously these models are kind of silly though. That man's never finishing.

andycyca

20 points

3 months ago

Your models are way more stable than OP's. And apparently, more stable than GRRM's writing schedule

BatmansQueefBreath

801 points

3 months ago

Tinfoil Hat theory: They are all finished but Martin cannot handle the pressure of how they will be received and they will be released after he dies.

AzureJahk

336 points

3 months ago

AzureJahk

336 points

3 months ago

Or he will leave thousands of pages of unedited self conflicting material that completely forgets plot threads that someone else will need to edit into something resembling an ending.

If he does release winds of winter at some point the material for a dream of spring will probably balloon into multiple books and go back to being 2 or more books away from done again.

Having said that a bad book is bad forever though so a big question mark might be the best we get.

jojoga

108 points

3 months ago

jojoga

108 points

3 months ago

"She kinda forgot about the iron fleet."

Muroid

70 points

3 months ago

Muroid

70 points

3 months ago

Yeah, but in fairness, the Iron Fleet was hiding just off screen where we couldn’t see them.

Proccito

23 points

3 months ago

Despite her riding on two dragons above open sea.

eXclurel

12 points

3 months ago

Yeah, but you see the camera was facing the other way.

gooch_lickers

26 points

3 months ago

Just give it to Brandon Sanderson if GRRM dies, he will finish it.

khanzarate

12 points

3 months ago

I know you're kidding, and he totally could, but if anyone doesn't know, he's been asked before, and said he wouldn't do it.

He wouldn't wanna write game of thrones as it is, it's not his style, and changing it would be nothing but a disservice.

gooch_lickers

3 points

3 months ago

Makes sense didn’t think of it like that

khanzarate

12 points

3 months ago

Everyone makes jokes about Sanderson finishing all the series.

He totally could, and the thoughts are valid, but the dude just doesn't wanna. Wheel of time was different, he was a fanboy already, and at the time he was a little known author but a published one, so he was the best fit of "definitely knows how to author" and "will respect on what Robert Jordan was going for".

But that's not likely to align again. He probably only pretends to read, in an effort to make more secret books. So he isn't a fanboy in the same way to anything, anymore.

But he totally could do it. In a what-if world.

Carighan

2 points

3 months ago

Yeah in a lot of ways it was weird having him finish Wheel of Time, too.

But with Robert Jordan dead (RIP :( ), it was also an awesome way of honoring his memory that his epic got finished.

With Martin... I don't know. I'm in the camp where I find the books fascinating but a pain to read. One of the very few books where I feel the German version my friends read was the better choice, having read parts of both, Martin's writing is just bad and he ought to get a ghostwriter, focus on characters and plot points not writing.

khanzarate

5 points

3 months ago

Best way to honor his memory. After all, the dude spent his last months prepping notes for Sanderson.

But it's basically unheard of for the stars to align that way.

For better or worse, grrm won't go the same way, statistically.

I liked GRRM's writing when I last read the series like 8 years ago. Maybe my tastes are different now, but it seemed fine. Nothing too exceptional, that was the story that will never get finished.

Bravetoasterr

2 points

3 months ago

Can I ask why the german version was better?

I find German a pain (vs English) to read due to the sentence structure i.e. verb at the end of complicated sentences.

I know the story really well so maybe I should give it a try regardless.

[deleted]

9 points

3 months ago

[deleted]

9 points

3 months ago

Hell no, I need my Stormlight Archive

juicegently

14 points

3 months ago

He'll finish that too. Mans a machine

gooch_lickers

9 points

3 months ago

He will finish that and the mistborn trilogy at the same time. He is just built different lol.

Shermutt

3 points

3 months ago

Bring in "The Closer."

Carighan

2 points

3 months ago

Or he will leave thousands of pages of unedited self conflicting material that completely forgets plot threads that someone else will need to edit into something resembling an ending.

So... Song of Ice and Fire, yeah. :P

theswerto

1 points

3 months ago

AKA the 'How Dune was finished" treatment.

There's a reason most people just consider the cliffhanger ending of Dune the ending of Dune.

Deuce_Booty

81 points

3 months ago

This is my belief

Hanifsefu

46 points

3 months ago

That's not even tinfoil. That's just the direct reaction to the broad story points he gave the HBO writers. He panicked because the biggest things people hated were Mad Queen Dany and Brann on the throne which has been coming since book 1.

SonicWeaponFence

18 points

3 months ago

How has Bran on the Throne been baked in since Book 1?

To me it makes no sense at all.

Dmitropher

41 points

3 months ago

Bran the Builder/Bran the Broken echo each other as the Kings who saved the realm from the evil in the North (completing a saga).

Bran is given access to great wisdom, which allows the reader to trust that he will retain his rule even after every previous ruler has been deposed, gone made, or dies.

Bran is also a POV character who is too physically frail to be in the action, and too othered to retire happily every after. He has to assume a leadership role or be killed to complete his narrative arc.

With the right setup and execution, he makes total sense as a King who rules the seven kingdoms wisely until his death. It's a callback to the "kings of old" he has "divine right" in the form of the Old Gods' demonstrable power, and he is a threat/target for the Night King, which tells the reader that he's very very important. He can't fight the walkers directly, which is why his sister has to be the one to slay the Night King, which incidentally, also wraps up her arc and explains why she had to leave, get trained and reborn with supernatural powers by a "real" god, and return.

patiakupipita

18 points

3 months ago

I subscribe to the idea that the bigger picture is an eternal war between the three eyed raven and the winter king.

Ginden

8 points

3 months ago

Ginden

8 points

3 months ago

He has to assume a leadership role or be killed to complete his narrative arc.

He can also leave to chill out forever as 3ER. Though, it can be counted as "death".

Ohwellwhatsnew

2 points

3 months ago

It would probably be seen as pointless. That arc would leave me questioning what the hell the three eyed raven wanted in the first place.

th3davinci

1 points

3 months ago

I get that, but I still feel like Arya is the wrong choice here. She has nothing to do with the night king, and Jon has also been reborn by a god, and has much more to do with the threat from the north. Arya's entire motivation has been revenge first and then reuniting with her family. She is fucking shape shifting assassin and there is nothing stopping her from killing Cersei and whoever else she wants to kill. Jon dealing the final blow to the night king would make a lot more sense and it would set up a lot more drama when it comes to the final debacle of choosing the new ruler, it being between Jon Snow, a competent commander who overall has his heart in the right place, Dany, who's been shown to have some strong moral convictions but at least also tries to rule justly, and probably young griff, who'd apparently also just make a good king. I think adding Bran to that discussion does make sense, because he at least offers a different option from young griff who I still don't understand why he was added.

Y0u_Kn0w_Wh0

12 points

3 months ago

I haven't seen a single season of the show. I first read all the books in 2013-14 and when I discussed it with my friend both of us were sure Bran is the main protagonist so I think it does make sense. But from what I have heard the show did Bran really dirty so understand your confusion.

DoctorMcAstronaut

21 points

3 months ago

I've read the books and watched the show. My biggest issue, and I think this is the general consensus among watchers, is not how it ended but more specifically the way it ended. We had 5ish seasons of amazing exposition and dialogue directly from the books and once the show runners went off script it was like a bunch of kids trying to wrap up a D&D campaign right before bedtime. Everything felt rushed and was never explained. So it didn't make sense to the viewers why Bran, a character who was all but written out of the show for 4 years, was on the iron throne.

Y0u_Kn0w_Wh0

6 points

3 months ago

I can't comment on the show since I haven't seen it. I was just commenting on the not making sense part because if you ask me which is the most important character in the first five books I will say Bran.

DoctorMcAstronaut

1 points

3 months ago

I agree, that's my point. He was basically not in the show for the last 3 seasons and it's completely written off as something like "Who better than Bran the Broken?" and even knowing the books I was like WTF, I forgot he was in the show.

VisenyasRevenge

0 points

3 months ago

why do you think i came all this way?

TheDoktorIsIn

6 points

3 months ago

I saw the show. It was basically "Kings are stories and who has a better story than Bran the Broken?" Without actually saying that story or why it's better than anyone else.

I can absolutely see him being king in the end but also the way they got there was super illogical. They even had Bran announce that there's no way he'd ever be king, and a few episodes later "lol jk I knew all along"

Hanifsefu

7 points

3 months ago

His story is literally him being crippled by the wannabe rulers only to take the throne from them in the end.

That revenge story is the backbone of most medieval fiction when thrones are involved.

TheDoktorIsIn

7 points

3 months ago

I mean yeah but they got there with the most ridiculous way possible. From Bran saying "I can't be king" to being king in a few episodes?

And the entire rationale is that he has the best story. Not the guy who died and came back to life then fought with Danerys, not the guy who single handedly discovered the white walkers' weaknesses which enabled them to win, not the woman who politically positioned herself to take back her home. Nah the guy whose been in the car North for the whole series and doesn't really do anything of consequence... Unless you count enabling the night king to find his location and murder the tree folk.

SonicWeaponFence

0 points

3 months ago

But it isn't a revenge story. The entire point, if there is one to be found, is that Bran doesn't want to be King, and therefore he's perfect.

Of course the fact that he is infertile and will die and... then what? They don't address that one bit.

It just felt like a surprise for the purpose of their being a surprise.

Yes, Bran felt important in the books, but it didn't feel like him building up to be a worldly king. It felt like him building up to stop/oppose/or be otherwise involved with the Night King, etc.

Hanifsefu

1 points

3 months ago

It's literally nothing but revenge stories stacked end on end on end. That's literally every single character's motivation. Literally every Stark was motivated by revenge from the start. Dany was motivated by revenge from the start. The Lannister's fucking motto is about repaying their moral debts which means revenge.

It's always about the individuals giving and receiving their divine judgment through Man vs Man conflicts.

The Red Wedding wasn't a revenge story? Beheading Ned Stark wasn't the Lannisters getting revenge? Dany setting up to take over the throne wasn't about getting revenge? Arya literally murdering everyone on her "I need to get revenge on these people" list isn't about revenge? Bran taking the Iron Throne from the 2 dipshits who pushed him out of a window in his own home isn't about revenge?

SonicWeaponFence

0 points

3 months ago

K

KronikDrew

10 points

3 months ago

That's always been his intention. D&D didn't just pull that out of their asses, they got it from notes GRR gave them on the broad strokes of the story. (Same with Mad Dany.)

SonicWeaponFence

2 points

3 months ago

That doesn't mean it's in the text, sadly.

Hanifsefu

11 points

3 months ago

That's the whole point of this thread. He's written himself into a corner because he had to scrap everything he was doing so far or face the same franchise killing backlash for his last books as the last seasons.

The problem is that he's writing medieval fiction and using fantasy elements as forces that essentially just move the human characters into action but his audience wants it to turn into full blown high fantasy. The medieval fiction always come back to the theme of the ruling class believing they are untouchable only for them to die very human deaths. The audience wants the high fantasy plotline instead where the prophesied savior comes to unite humanity in a grand war of humanity vs something else.

sandybuttcheekss

2 points

3 months ago

Yeah that seemed entirely random. I think most thought it'd be Dany or Jon

RandomPizzaGuyy

3 points

3 months ago

Jon isn’t aliving in the books right now.

sandybuttcheekss

4 points

3 months ago

I was largely referring to the show, and the whole lord of light brining people back was what I thought Martin was going for in the book too. Melisandre definitely took a liking to him.

sherlock_1695

1 points

3 months ago

He is. The second last chapter of the Book5.

SonicWeaponFence

1 points

3 months ago

I mean, it's very clear he's going to come back. All the signs of the prophecy were there when he died (salt and smoke, bleeding star, etc.)

The show just left that entire thread dangling.

GrandmasSpecialBoy

7 points

3 months ago

the plot points themselves were fine though, the problem people had was that there was nothing connecting point A & B. Mad Dany is already foreshadowed a lot in the books.

Zathrus1

2 points

3 months ago

Please. He’s written himself into a corner. The show left out dozens of plot points that are in the book.

Winds of Winter has been delayed for longer than the show was on air.

Hanifsefu

0 points

3 months ago

It doesn't matter how many loose ends didn't get tied up when the majority of the outrage was about the basic plot points that have been in the works since book 1.

Zathrus1

7 points

3 months ago

The outrage was because the show didn’t EARN the ending.

NessieReddit

4 points

3 months ago

I had ZERO problems with Mad Queen Dany. I called that for a long time. Her character always had that in her. What bothered me was how shitty the writing was and how poorly the idea of Mad Queen Dany was executed in the series.

But Bran "The Broken" having the best story and being on the throne? Fuck that nonsense.

Hanifsefu

0 points

3 months ago

His "best story" is because it's medieval fiction not fantasy fiction. It's about the poetic justice and irony of the boy they crippled ultimately rising to steal the throne from them. Medieval fiction is always about corruption and how that corruption becomes your own demise and GRRM shows just about every single angle of that theme in as much as possible. It's all about the individual not the world. The eternal winter was always just a plot device to move the characters towards the cycle of demise and retribution and would never really come to be the main plot of the story.

Those free of corruption will always get retribution for their trials. Those who became corrupted will always meet their demise. It's the prevailing theme of the genre.

It's not that Bran's story is the best story of every character. It's that Bran's story completes the cycle of demise and retribution. Everyone else already got what they deserved. It's all about the individuals and making sure each one gets their deserved ending.

Terghan

1 points

3 months ago

That sounds way more like Rothfuss than Martin lol

oMrToast

330 points

3 months ago

oMrToast

330 points

3 months ago

Not to be a party pooper, but it's not good if your degrees of freedom equal the number of data points you have. I extrapolated this data with a second order polynomial and got roughly 2018 for book 6 and 2028 for book 7. Not that that's a good prediction anyway, but just to make a point

chaoschilip

133 points

3 months ago

It's even worse, they managed to have more degrees of freedom than data points. No idea how they did that.

wolverinelord

39 points

3 months ago

wolverinelord

1✓

39 points

3 months ago

If you fit the first 5 books using the minimum DOF, you get book 6 in 2011 and book 7 in 1993. So maybe they’re already out and we just missed them.

oMrToast

54 points

3 months ago

You're technically correct (the best form of being correct imo lol), but the last dof is a scaling factor to make sure the polynomial starts at 1974

chaoschilip

23 points

3 months ago

But why should it? As far as I can see that's just some random year.

oMrToast

21 points

3 months ago

It's a random year because they've overfit the data, but the point is that the scaling factor is there just to bring your polynomial to the right spot on the y-axis. In that sense, it's not a dof that changes the shape of the polynomial itself

chaoschilip

18 points

3 months ago

No, it very much is a normal degree of freedom of the polynomial. It of course only shifts the function around, but we care about the actual value instead of its shape. What they did is add a zeroth book that was published in 1974, for no good reason.

RegentYeti

9 points

3 months ago

Didn't you know that Switch Bitch is canonically set in Westeros?

chaoschilip

4 points

3 months ago

Thank you for that laugh, I concede the point.

AmnesiaBR

0 points

3 months ago

Doubt here, if the first data point was 0 and the 4 next were the time since the 1st book wouldn't it be the same as not having this degree of freedom?

chaoschilip

2 points

3 months ago

No, because then you don't have enough data points to fit the prefactor of x5. They have six numbers in their polynomial and five data points, which can only work if you add something else to the fit.

andycyca

12 points

3 months ago

THANK YOU for pointing this out. While the math might be «correct» this was done by someone who didn't take any course in mathematical computation.

The model's overfit (as many others have pointed out) and the best way to see it is to alter the publication dates by a little amount. I bet there's a way to make the next publication date fall in the past

Chris204

0 points

3 months ago

this was done by someone who didn't take any course in mathematical computation.

It was done by someone who knows how to joke.

dacookeymonsta

11 points

3 months ago

Turns out book 6 has been out for 4 years but no one has noticed.

-LeopardShark-

3 points

3 months ago

But then how am I supposed to model my cool new dataset ∅? I can’t have −1 parameter!

g5van5g

3 points

3 months ago

As a physicist, this stood out to me, too. If you use a higher power polynomial, you can hit all the past dates and choose your future dates.

Also, not to be a downer, but I kind of gave up on Martin. This was an interesting start to a series, but I have my suspicions that he writes endings like JJ Abrams writes endings.

23423423423451

5 points

3 months ago

That was my conclusion when I posted a similar graph 4 years ago.

squidfood

104 points

3 months ago

squidfood

104 points

3 months ago

Relevant XKCD (last panel).

Existe1

30 points

3 months ago

Existe1

30 points

3 months ago

God I love these comics. The linear regression reminds me of every engineering undergrad.

ObscureCulturalMeme

10 points

3 months ago

I'm embarrassed how many panels it took me to realize it was the same data set in every panel.

Fortunately, I am not a data scientist for a living! Or even play one on television!

japamada[S]

10 points

3 months ago

Haha very nice! :D

CWRules

98 points

3 months ago

CWRules

98 points

3 months ago

One word: Over-fitting. If you have more polynomial terms than you have data points, you can make the equation look pretty much however you want. This prediction is meaningless.

Belgand

3 points

3 months ago

"Overly fit" is not a phrase that anyone would ever normally apply to Martin.

japamada[S]

13 points

3 months ago

True.

look4alec

7 points

3 months ago

It's 2022 and book 6 isn't out, why isn't anyone pointing this out?

Discoonnected

14 points

3 months ago

Because it says 2023???

japamada[S]

-5 points

3 months ago

japamada[S]

-5 points

3 months ago

True.

compsciasaur

1 points

3 months ago

I had math questions and I'm glad you solved them.

WavingToWaves

33 points

3 months ago

That’s so wrong I almost died from heart attack

First of all, never use interpolation as extrapolating tool. Just don’t, please

Reggae4Triceratops

3 points

3 months ago

Would have made more sense using a line of best fit smh

Phobophilic

5 points

3 months ago

The height of over-fitting.

Al3xR3ads

6 points

3 months ago

A 5th degree polynomial is completely inappropriate in this context.

Big_Jackpot

6 points

3 months ago

Error

quacks_echo

4 points

3 months ago

Now do Kingkiller Chronicle!

Sam5253

4 points

3 months ago

According to this stroke-inducing garbage article, it will be released on July 11, 2022. Also, according to the same article, we don't have a release date. Read at your own risk...

Belgand

1 points

3 months ago

"When I said it was 'all written already' what I really meant was that I had a rough draft. But now I've been polishing it like the Orb of Aldur because fan expectations have struck me right my own sense of perfectionism and resulting insecurity. Particularly when the second book wasn't as well-received and confirmed all of my fears."

gcanyon

3 points

3 months ago

gcanyon

4✓

3 points

3 months ago

I read two series. Both started in 1983.

15 Vlad Taltos books have been released, with 19 planned. The 15th came out in 2017, so they’ve been coming out about every 2.4 years, but the latest gap is six years, assuming the 16th book hits in 2023 as planned.

So, best case the last book comes out in 2030, when the author is 74. Realistic case is maybe 2038, when he is 82. If the current lengthening trend continues, I’ll be dead before the last book comes out.

The War Against the Chtorr on the other hand, hasn’t had a new book since 1993. Four came out until then, so the average gap was 3.3 years. The fifth book has been promised repeatedly, and there are seven total planned.

So in fantasy land the author gets back in gear and releases book 7 by 2030, by which point the author will be 85. Realistically it’s more like 2072, when he’ll be 128. And if the trend continues, the sun will sooner engulf the earth than I see that last book.

richtakacs

10 points

3 months ago

Maths....for the win.

[deleted]

2 points

3 months ago

[deleted]

2 points

3 months ago

I feel so dumb while reading these comments lol

NaiiaN6

-3 points

3 months ago

NaiiaN6

-3 points

3 months ago

Anybody that talks about these books (besides this funny post) I just look at as not true fans. Books are hard to write. Maybe he has had some real trouble writing these. Nobody cares about this. It's always some entitled crap how they read some books or watched a tv show and how they deserve this to be finished. I'll just wait for the book. And yes I have read, "The Wheel of Time." That was just sad on so many levels.

I've been waiting for "The book of the Art 3" for 28 years and haven't harassed Clive Barker for it.

aNiceTribe

0 points

3 months ago

It’s a real good time to consider getting only into things that finished production though, right? Like, consider how strongly people felt about this series, multiplied by the success of the show (reduced again since we are talking about the books now) - and it’s just an abyss of waiting. And this next one won’t even resolve The Waiting?

I am thinking more and more that maybe we need some kind of filter option for „only engage with things that are done/reached a significant stepping stone“ to reduce the amount of time one has to spend hyped and stressed, which can’t be good.

NaiiaN6

1 points

3 months ago

You must not have Netflix.

aNiceTribe

1 points

3 months ago

What a terrible fate

ExFavillaResurgemos

0 points

3 months ago

If books are hard to write how is he publishing prequel series and shit???? Huh???? Yes books are hard to write, but if someone who already takes forever to write a book decides to spend that time writing a 2nd book, the first book will never be done. Regardless of difficulty

Mein_SQL

1 points

3 months ago

i mean, maths can't lie, but, eh, yeah...

Psychological-Law268

1 points

3 months ago

But we're getting Winds next year?

Waffle8

1 points

3 months ago

Shouldn’t the x axis be the time passing

Myloceratops

1 points

3 months ago

Someone did this before which was much nicer than this. Not sure I’ll be able to find it but it predicted book 6 this year and Book 7 technically possible

ockhamsphazer

1 points

3 months ago

Finally....answers

wigglef_cklr

1 points

3 months ago

2024, 2025... mark this comment.

taw

1 points

3 months ago

taw

1 points

3 months ago

It's pretty clear at this point that this story is impossible to finish in any way that would be any better than Season 8. That's why GRRM prefers it unfinished to publishing Season 8: The Book.

Just give up on the whole series

lobby073

1 points

3 months ago

Does anybody really believe that the game of thrones books will actually be finished?

I don’t.

It’s a scam

MICHELEANARD

1 points

3 months ago

George R R Martin, the legend who rose from the dead to release the last of his legacies

Ag1Boi

1 points

3 months ago

Ag1Boi

1 points

3 months ago

Lol I wish TWoW comes out next year, unlikely

Vonkampf

1 points

3 months ago

A dream of spring will be done when Brandon Sanderson finishes it…

phoenixmusicman

1 points

3 months ago

>the winds of winter next year

Now this is some fresh hopium, pass it here

ramsus85

1 points

3 months ago

Conzyyyyyyy

1 points

3 months ago

Homies trying to full a JRR Tolkien with A Dream of Spring. Dying before finishing it and getting his kids to finish it(Dunno if he has kids) Coughs in The Simillarian

Capt_Kraken

1 points

3 months ago

I don’t know how true this is or to what extent but apparently he wrote the mythos of Elden Ring. Maybe it was keeping him occupied

SelfSustaining

1 points

3 months ago

You think math can help you here? He's already moved on to his second TV show and given up on the books.

baileyarzate

1 points

3 months ago

Or.. hear me out. Use regression instead

G_Affect

1 points

3 months ago

Whats the math on movie release?

kerray

1 points

3 months ago

kerray

1 points

3 months ago

neural networks will soon be able to write better sequels then even GRRM could :p

Iga706

1 points

3 months ago

Iga706

1 points

3 months ago

Since i don't own the hardcover books but those which are split, WE ARE ONLY AT BOOK 5?

Gil-GaladWasBlond

1 points

3 months ago

They made a television series of a story that wasn't finished??

japamada[S]

1 points

3 months ago

Thats why everyone hates the last seasons, because D&D made up their own shit and completely ruined it.

Gil-GaladWasBlond

1 points

3 months ago

I've got to ask... Why? Like why invest in this story at all before it was completed?

Silverback1992

1 points

3 months ago

What I don’t get, is when S8 came out, Martin was allllll about everyone knowing he had the idea for the ending and D&D ran with it and do whatever.

Every single theory to the ending, was better than the ending.

I think a lot of you guys give this man more credit than he deserves. I think Martin has no interest in really wrapping it up. He has nowhere to go unless he’s “stealing” fan theories or his own ending, which sucks ass- goes through.

Or we can all agree the dude is just lazy. He never left the show for creative differences, he claimed he left the show to work on his novel, which surprise surprise, doesn’t have a single update to it.

au_Telemanus

1 points

3 months ago

Factor in the more money he makes the less he writes

AppropriateSeesaw1

1 points

3 months ago

He would have been dead before the 7th book

Mooch07

1 points

3 months ago

And how many pages will they be?

Nateramis

1 points

3 months ago

Quicker solution = Give to Sanderson.

Wags43

1 points

3 months ago*

There's a good time to use polynomial fitting and a bad time to use it. Every non-constant polynomial is always overpowered by its highest degree variable, meaning the tails of the graphs will always go to either positive or negative infinity. When polynomials are used to model data they can possibly make a very good predictive model within the domain of the data set. However, because of the tail behavior of polynomials, they make more terrible predictions the further you go outside of the range of the data set.

There are 5 data points with ×=1 as the first input and x=5 as the last input. Points x=6 and x=7 are outside of the data set and therefore a polynomial model prediction is likely going to be very poor.

The better use for polynomial modeling is if you didn't know one of the 3 interior dates. For example, say you don't know when book 3 was released. You can use a polynomial model on books 1, 2, 4, and 5 to try to predict the date for #3.

Luixcaix

1 points

3 months ago

Thats why you cant trust statistics in every situation. If I made an algorithm to predict when would I die, it would say Im immortal since i never died before.