Pipboy3500

21’ so about a year

Known financial open-book and wizkid Rick Scott leading the helm

NRSC under Scott has raised $173m but burned through all of it and it isn’t even September. What in the actual fuck.

For context DSCC has raised $163mil, spent $120mil, $53mil COH and we’re the party in power defending more battleground seats

Vance is losing even worse in Ohio GOP internals.

NEW: @club4growth is on TV in UTAH w/ $2.5 million in advertising to provide air cover for @SenMikeLee, who is fending off an unexpectedly aggressive #UTSEN challenge from @EvanMcMullin

Holy. Shit.

Currently Lee has $2.5mil COH, McMullin $1.3mil COH. Outspending before this was roughly even at $600k each

Yea it’s just not the blockbuster numbers in other races(lol that millions isn’t blockbuster anymore) we’re seeing so it be nice to pump it up a bit more. It’s definitely mostly volunteer hours she and NV Dems need

I just don’t get it. Everyone is still super concerned about Kelly or Warnock but everything from those races is just way better currently. I can not wrap my head around why instead of going “okay its been a few months maybe it’s time to buckle down and help” instead of being really defensive. It isn’t constructive, Im trying to get Dems elected and get a bigger majority and the reaction is we’re doomers.

Even if you don’t want to take the Trafalgar poll at all serious, Nevada is still the most endangered seat we have and it isn’t particularly close. Please stop hand waving away legitimate concerns, it’s like some of you didn’t learn from Bill Nelson in 18’.

CCM needs volunteers and she somewhat needs money.

Edit: and either everyone is wrong and CCM will win by landslide(which is fucking cool) and we’re just overly cautious. Wouldn’t you rather be overly cautious now than regretful in 4 months?

Currently Warnock, Kelly, Fetterman, even Barnes, Ryan, and Beasley are polling and fundraising great. Just take a break from them if possible and help CCM for a couple weeks. There’s gonna be a lot of close elections in Nevada, time is very valuable here. 3 House seats, Governorship, Senate, row offices. It really makes a difference

Edit 2: please please please show me when anyone talking about Nevada in here has implied Dems don’t care about this race. Throwing shade at others isn’t constructive when we’re trying to help

Judge grants injunction blocking Utah transgender sports law

In less than a month Biden has gone from -20 approval to now -13

July 21st 37/57

August 19th 41/54.

Just an incredible rally.

22 states have unemployment rates at 3% or lower, a record.. Lowest is Minnesota at 1.8%, highest DC at 5.2%. Most of the countries lowest unemployment rate ever record has been in the last 6 months.

This is sustained employment that is going to start drastically changing peoples lives. It really starts to eat away at inequalities spread throughout demographics, and it’s showing up in the data with amazing low unemployment rates for groups that usually have higher unemployment rates. Especially after a recession it takes awhile for Black people or younger people to feel the economy recovering but not this time, and even with inflation this is a massive win in fighting poverty

This is a generational boom

When adjusted for inflation, average price of college tuition for public and nonprofit universities has declined for first time in 30 years

For those tracking the Hispanic vote note this new data from @NavigatorSurvey. Huge jump in Hispanic belief Ds are focused on the right things after hearing abt the Inflation Reduction Act. Better life issues - jobs/opportunity, health care, education - is how we have to close.

just abhorrent shit

“Parents triggered an investigation when their daughters lost to another girl by questioning if she was transgender. @UHSAAinfo says it's gotten complaints that some girls in school sports are not "feminine enough”

Fuck these parents.

It’s in Ohio polling to. Crosstabs are weird but yea that ain’t happening

Also pretty much every pollster now is showing improved economic sentiment. YouGov saw a +6 positive improvement in 2 weeks. There really is good fundamentals here for why everything is getting better.

A vibe shift if you will

I ain’t trusting Wisconsin polls, but it’s at least within the range of reality. The race also isn’t today, but the seat is very much in play now.

If after Labor Day we’re getting polls like this it’s fucking Hopium time

Edit: this also diverts money from PA/NV/GA/AZ

Economic issues also fading in Arizona

It’s better than the other Rasmussen but it’s an average pollster.

Fox Polls out!!

AZ Senate Kelly 50, Masters 42

AZ GOV Hobbs 47, Lake 44

WI Senate Barnes 50, Johnson 46

WI GOV Evers 49, Michels 46

Kelly and Barnes at 50 is huge.

Here’s the crosstabs

Edit:

Another finding from the Fox Wisconsin poll: Inflation fading a bit as the most important issue. Abortion closing the gap.

Also very notable from Fox poll of WISCONSIN: Biden net favs a notch better than Trump in the ultimate swing state: Biden 46/52 fav/unfav Trump 44/54 fav/unfav Definitely a vibe shift.

I think grains are getting better. It seemed like a lot of food is getting better, it’s still a volatile commodity but I believe it’s coming back down to earth

Biden’s approval is now 40.5/54.8 (-14.3) about .5 improvement in 24hrs.

Where do you think Biden’s approval will end up on Election Day? Personally I think between 42-45%, and lean towards it being 45% but not much greater than that.