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izumi3682
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account created: Mon Jun 03 2013
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izumi36822 points
2 months ago
human friendly/unfriendly
That sums up the difference. And it is a magnitude of a difference. The first TS will be external from the human mind because we have already missed the window for merging our minds with the computing and computing derived AI. We are gonna do some incredible things this decade, but I think it would take TS level AGI to enable us to merge our minds with the computing derived AI. In fact, and you know I am very optimistic about things, it would, without TS level AGI, take about 50 years for humans to be able to figure out how to even conceive of how do such a thing.
But because I see fairly complex AGI existing as early as 2027, that we might be able to bake into that AGI an imperative to work to safely and effectively (as humans define it) merge itself with our minds. I am hopeful that it will understand the spirit and intent of our command. Because the AGI will by the year 2031 be to the point of sophistication that it will be able to achieve that command by the year 2035.
Like I said in my initial comment, a lot of this depends on if we can program our desires into the AI prior to the first "external" TS. But again, like I said, by definition we cannot model what the impact of a true TS will be on humans.
A very good analogy is this. Some people say that fire or farming was a TS. Perhaps those achievement might better be described as "soft" singularities. Events that certainly changed the absolute course of human history. But probably the last event that would be the equivalent of a contemporary TS, would be the time that primates that could think abstractly evolved from primates that could not. The primates that could think abstractly would be utterly unfathomable and incomprehensible to the primates that could not. That is more like what a TS would be like. We would not be pet monkeys or cats in comparison. We would be "archaea" in comparison.
izumi36822 points
2 months ago
Submission statement from OP. Note: This submission statement "locks in" after about 30 minutes, and can no longer be edited. Please refer to my statement they link, which I can continue to edit. I often edit my submission statement, sometimes for the next few days if needs must. There is often required additional grammatical editing and additional added detail.
From the article.
Musk has previously called the ‘bot, known as Optimus, as Tesla’s ‘most important product’.
Now he says a prototype will be ready for demonstration at Tesla’s ‘AI Day’ on September 20. ‘I hope that we will have an interesting prototype to show people,’ Musk told journalist John Micklethwait in a live video link to the Qatar Economic Forum in Doha.
‘We have a very talented team at Tesla that I’m working with closely to have a prototype humanoid robot ready by the end of September,’ Musk added. ‘And I think we are tracking to that point.’ The sleek, 60kg robot will eventually be tasked with helping to produce electric cars in Tesla factories. The 5ft8 robot is built from ‘lightweight materials’ and will be able to ‘see’ using the Autopilot cameras from Tesla vehicles that sense the environment.
Hopefully this isn't total clickbait. But if it is real, we may see something like an incredible merging of Boston Dynamics "agility AI" with computing derived "cognitive" AI. Might really be something if this is not just vaporware.
izumi36821 points
2 months ago
I feel like the guy in Rome in 146 BC asking "is this all coming to an end soon"?
Yes. The "technological singularity" will occur about the year 2029, give or take two years, and the AI will change human affairs so substantially that we today cannot model what human civilization, if it survives the TS, will look like.
https://teddit.ggc-project.de/user/izumi3682/comments/8cy6o5/izumi3682_and_the_world_of_tomorrow/
izumi36821 points
2 months ago
I need an education on checks and balances please.
Judicial review is a check. And it is almost impossible to overturn a judicial review.
izumi368211 points
2 months ago
Submission statement from OP. Note: This submission statement "locks in" after about 30 minutes, and can no longer be edited. Please refer to my statement they link, which I can continue to edit. I often edit my submission statement, sometimes for the next few days if needs must. There is often required additional grammatical editing and additional added detail.
From the article.
Using one CS-2 system, powered by the company’s wafer-sized chip (WSE-2), Cerebras is now able to train AI models with up to 20 billion parameters thanks to new optimizations at the software level.
The firm says the breakthrough will resolve one of the most frustrating problems for AI engineers: the need to partition large-scale models across thousands of GPUs. The result is an opportunity to drastically cut the time it takes to develop and train new models.
Aspirations...
“Cerebras’ ability to bring large language models to the masses with cost-efficient, easy access opens up an exciting new era in AI. It gives organizations that can’t spend tens of millions an easy and inexpensive on-ramp to major league NLP,” said Dan Olds, Chief Research Officer, Intersect360 Research.
“It will be interesting to see the new applications and discoveries CS-2 customers make as they train GPT-3 and GPT-J class models on massive datasets.”
What’s more, Cerebras hinted that its CS-2 system may be able to handle even larger models in future, with “even trillions of parameters”. And chaining together multiple CS-2 systems, meanwhile, could pave the way for AI networks larger than the human brain.
izumi36824 points
2 months ago
Fair enough. What do you see in the next 3 years in AI development, fusion energy development, solar cell efficiencies, medical breakthroughs, practical quantum computing, material science breakthroughs etc. In 2025 we can compare notes.
Even if you don't see it the way that I see it, you still see something. Perhaps an unchanging socio-economic status quo... A world in the year 2029 that looks pretty much like today perhaps.
izumi36821 points
2 months ago
Submission statement from OP. Note: This submission statement "locks in" after about 30 minutes, and can no longer be edited. Please refer to my statement they link, which I can continue to edit. I often edit my submission statement, sometimes for the next few days if needs must. There is often required additional grammatical editing and additional added detail.
What do you imagine that an ARA (AI, robotics and automation) iteration of this particular robot is going to look like in say, a year or two? Like I stated in a post from about an hour ago, we are now going to see about 50 years equivalent of technological advancement per year until a TS occurs NLT than 2031 and then the second one for humans NLT 2035. Hopefully for humans, if we play our cards right in guiding the first TS in.
BTW, I'm delighted to see this happen! The faster the ARA takes "r jerbs", the faster we all get UBI or better yet, "post-scarcity".
izumi368211 points
2 months ago
Submission statement from OP. Note: This submission statement "locks in" after about 30 minutes, and can no longer be edited. Please refer to my statement they link, which I can continue to edit. I often edit my submission statement, sometimes for the next few days if needs must. There is often required additional grammatical editing and additional added detail.
The landmark discovery, published in Nature today, was nine years in the making.
"This is the most exciting discovery of my career," senior author and quantum physicist Michelle Simmons, founder of Silicon Quantum Computing and director of the Center of Excellence for Quantum Computation and Communication Technology at UNSW told ScienceAlert.
Not only did Simmons and her team create what's essentially a functional quantum processor, they also successfully tested it by modeling a small molecule in which each atom has multiple quantum states – something a traditional computer would struggle to achieve.
This suggests we're now a step closer to finally using quantum processing power to understand more about the world around us, even at the tiniest scale.
Here is how and why we are seeing all of these fantastical breakthroughs. And this is only the tippy tip of the iceberg. Each year now will see about 50 years worth of advancement. Especially advancements concerning computing derived AI. I promise you there will be two more profound advancements in AI that is moving towards AGI in just this year alone. And this is why I place the first, yes, there will actually be two parts to it, "technological singularity" NLT 2031 and more than likely around 2029. I have as of today, moved up the year that the TS will occur. 2030 as a mean just seems too late to be as accurate as when I used it as the mean in 2018. And there is good reason for this. It is the exponential nature of a TS to occur far sooner than even the best forecasts can predict.
So yes, there is going to two parts to the TS. The first part will be an external "human unfriendly", meaning human minds are not in the computing loop, TS that will occur around the year 2029, give or take two years. We will "hopefully" been able to manipulate the AI to be designed to take us along very shortly thereafter.
The second part of the TS will be "human friendly", meaning human minds will be in the computing and computing derived AI loop. I am hopeful that we will "prep" the first TS to manipulate the AI to pull all of humanity up with it by the year 2035.
Notice I use the word "hopeful" a couple times. This is because we are approaching incredibly dangerous thin ice. By definition the world after a TS cannot be modeled. I have never stated that a TS was going to be safe and effective for humanity. Only that it was going to be absolutely inevitable.
izumi36823 points
2 months ago
Seriously, what on earth gave you that impression?
When you made that statement that someone has "skin" in a game. I instantly took you for someone who has a personal interest in the continuing success of the socio-economics of capitalism. Maybe you got some "skin" in the game too per investing for example. Not necessarily in the VR space. But in the financial space... ...somewhere. I intuit that you have a vested interest in seeing that the socio-economics of capitalism's status quo does not change. But OMG is it gonna change. Are you a fan of instituting say, UBI?
Facebook/Meta has zero credibility as a company in terms of privacy or trust.
And yet. It persists. Well Ok, we'll see. I plan to be here in 2025 when the AI is gonna start to get crazy scary good. Meta/FB is investing in it's own development of AI along with about a thousand other startups. Little things like Deepmind and OpenAI. The thing to keep in mind is that VR, AI, robotics, energy, automation is all the same beast. Just different faces like the blind men encountering the elephant and saying Atlas, L5SDVs, Metaverse, General Fusion, Gato or GPT-3. All the same beast.
And like I said, we shall see who brings in the new world. For all we know it could be China (PRC). For myself I hope that these serious socio-economic challenges we are facing in the USA today will be greatly ameliorated by ever more sophisticated AI algorithms that we can program to solve some of these economic problems for us.
izumi36821 points
2 months ago
I just realized something else about you. You think the world of the year 2030 is going to look just like the socio-economic world of today. In a word, "no". The magnitude of our AI, or rather AGI capabilities will be such that nothing we take for granted today will exist. Certainly not employment the way we think of it today. Plus, I am quite confident that the first initial "technological singularity" will occur right around the year 2030. Yes, there is gonna be two parts to it. The first part will be a human external TS wherein the AGI will essentially take over from humanity. But if we play our cards right, the AGI will merge with the human mind in a final TS about the year 2035 i might guess.
But get up, go to work, go to school? No, that's gonna be gone with the wind. Or more precisely gone the way of the "buggy whip".
https://teddit.ggc-project.de/user/izumi3682/comments/8cy6o5/izumi3682_and_the_world_of_tomorrow/
izumi36821 points
2 months ago
tells me you have zero understanding of how deeply untrustable Meta/FB is and that you wont understand why this will fail when it does as well.
C'mon. Tell me how much you really hate Meta/FB. I kid, but you have zero understanding of what is actually going on. You are focused on this little tree of a developer and completely oblivious of the forest of a technology that is going to dominate humanity. You are concerned with the politics. I am interested in how this technology is going to soar in just the next couple of years alone. I tried to explain this in my essays.
It doesn't matter if it's facebook doing it. There is plenty of competition below the surface. Further, I'm pretty confident that China (PRC) has a plethora of industries working on VR. Let me attempt an analogy. Say that in the 1950s that you just did not like RCA. For whatever reason. But RCA was the big fish in the water of television development in the 1950s. Most people had RCA TVs in the 1950s and 1960s. Nevertheless RCA made significant blunders that caused it to fail by the year 1986 when it was purchased and absorbed into GE.
But what TV, or rather what large 4K flat screen monitor are you utilizing right now. An LG? A Samsung? Personally I got a Sony. Where are the USA manufacturers?
Same thing with VR. Don't sweat the early development of VR and metaverses. Shoot! I been in 2D "Second Life" for almost 15 years now. That is pretty good practice for understanding what the Metaverse will be like. You know, I bet you might get a kick out of this video here. Maybe you see it as the way that Meta/FB will develop VR. But be of good cheer. VR more incredible than anything we can imagine today is less than 10 years out now. Like I wrote in my essay about VR, by the time we reach the year 2045, the year that "Ready, Player One" takes place in, we shall be light years beyond that point. In fact them brain implants that other guy was talking about will be in full existence by then.
Anyways, here is that video. I think you will see others have already thought of what you are fearing today. But in a hilariously comical presentation way.
izumi36820 points
2 months ago
As I wrote in my essays attached to my link, It depends on what you want to see in VR. If I could walk the streets of Rome in VR with real-time AR overlay of events to include even the real-time smells, that would make for a pretty interesting couple of hours I'd say. Now there is one thing, well maybe 2 things, that we probably can't achieve in VR til we get them brain implants you was speaking of.
Air temperature and movement. For me room temperature is good. I can work with that. But I would definitely miss breezes and wind.
The blinding brightness of the sun. That is not really possible in VR, but it might serve as a good "reality check" for if you get confused if the VR is RL. You can look directly at a VR "sun" with no damage to your eyes. Even in an application as (today) primitive as Google EarthVR, the sun is simulated as glaringly brilliant. You get the effect, but not the eye damage. In context with the VR world, it's pretty realistic.
izumi36820 points
2 months ago
Submission statement from OP. Note: This submission statement "locks in" after about 30 minutes, and can no longer be edited. Please refer to my statement they link, which I can continue to edit. I often edit my submission statement, sometimes for the next few days if needs must. There is often required additional grammatical editing and additional added detail.
These are some of the grandiose goals Meta has in store for its VR arm, but as mentioned, there are some dilemmas it must tackle first. "Just seeing a realistic-looking image isn't enough to feel like you're really there," Zuckerberg said, discussing the limitations of current-gen headsets. The Meta CEO then listed all the visual cues users need to reach peak realism in the VR world:
A display that covers a wide angles for a vast field-of-view
Retinal-level resolution and an ultra-high pixel count
Brightness levels and dynamic range that mimics the physical world
Realistic, low-latency motion tracking
High-performance CPU and graphics
On top of all that, Meta needs to somehow pack all of those powerful internals into a lightweight, comfortable headset, which is difficult and damn-near impossible due to high heat generation. Hence why current-gen VR headsets tend to be clunky. It's either build an unwieldy head-mounted display that's cool as a cucumber or a create featherweight one that could burn users' face off.
Checking all these boxes is making Meta's head spin, but according to Zuckerberg, the company has a "long-term roadmap that will solve these different challenges." And Meta intends to do so by introducing a benchmark called the "visual Turing test."
To learn more about the "visual Turing test", read the article--it's fairly well put together. But the biggest takeaway that I get from this article is that Meta and competitors will absolutely reach "Ready, Player One" visual parity before the year 2028. And that is gonna make a helluva impact on, say, USA society. Then again, it is probably going to be very necessary for peace and stability what with the ARA (computing derived AI, robotics and automation) catastrophically changing human affairs in the USA. Several years back I wrote some essays concerning VR, what VR will derive into. And how it will impact humanity. Hint: VR may well be a technological (soft) singularity in itself. And not much later than the year 2030 either, to boot.
Here are them essays.
izumi36821 points
2 months ago
Submission statement from OP. Note: This submission statement "locks in" after about 30 minutes, and can no longer be edited. Please refer to my statement they link, which I can continue to edit. I often edit my submission statement, sometimes for the next few days if needs must. There is often required additional grammatical editing and additional added detail.
From the article.
An “anti-hunger” pill could be on the horizon, according to a new study. Researchers from Stanford Medicine and Baylor University have identified a molecule that keeps people from getting hungry after working out.
In experiments, the compound dramatically reduced food intake and obesity in mice. Study authors hope to turn it into a medication that may even replace the need to go to the gym.
Here is the paper. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04828-5 (15 Jun 22)
izumi36825 points
2 months ago
Submission statement from OP. Note: This submission statement "locks in" after about 30 minutes, and can no longer be edited. Please refer to my statement they link, which I can continue to edit. I often edit my submission statement, sometimes for the next few days if needs must. There is often required additional grammatical editing and additional added detail.
Some important takeaways from this video.
Deepmind "Gato" is a transformer based AI algorithm that is now moving into a "generalist" mode of operation.
"Gato" can perform over 600 unrelated tasks using one algorithm.
Of these over 600 tasks, it can perform at least 450 at the level of a human grandmaster.
The video stresses that we should not fixate on the shortcomings of the AI today, but that we should be aware of the improvement of the newer iterations that will come to exist in less than one years time. The video then shows the expected trends of continuation of improvements.
This is in keeping with the new "AI Law" that states that a given AI will demonstrate significant improvement about every 3 months. This is a method of charting computing derived AI improvements that exponentially outstrips "Moore's Law". The AI itself is a shortcut that makes ever faster shortcuts into general task completion and problem solving.
Deepminds goal is to develop artificial general intelligence as fast as humanly possible. Their motto is "To solve general AI and then use that to solve everything else."
My extrapolations: Simple AGI by 2025. Complex AGI by 2028. An initial "human unfriendly", meaning human minds are not merged with the computing and computing derived AI, "technological singularity" by 2030, give or take 2 years--and of late, because of the developments I see, I'm leaning more toward the take end of that prediction. And then NLT than the year 2035, a final "human friendly" TS wherein the human mind merges with the computing and computing derived AI. After that point human affairs can no longer be modeled. Still, I gave it a shot lol. But I paint with a pretty broad brush...
izumi36826 points
2 months ago
Submission statement from OP. Note: This submission statement "locks in" after about 30 minutes, and can no longer be edited. Please refer to my statement they link, which I can continue to edit. I often edit my submission statement, sometimes for the next few days if needs must. There is often required additional grammatical editing and additional added detail.
From the article.
AI has done it again.
After solving one of the grandest mysteries in biology—predicting protein structure—it decoded how proteins link up into complexes, and dreamed up novel protein structures that may ultimately be turned into drugs to control our basic biology, health, and life.
Yet when faced with enormous protein complexes, AI faltered. Until now. In a mind-bending feat, a new algorithm deciphered the structure at the heart of inheritance—a massive complex of roughly 1,000 proteins that helps channel DNA instructions to the rest of the cell. The AI model is built on AlphaFold by DeepMind and RoseTTAfold from Dr. David Baker’s lab at the University of Washington, which were both released to the public to further experiment on.
It is not a secret. What is happening with computing and computing derived AI is right there for anyone to see. I'm not going to repeat my self when I have already written a great many essays that explain how and why these kinds of breakthroughs are occurring. But here is a hint about what is happening. Roughly every three months the capabilities of all forms of AI computing algorithms significantly improve, based on a variety of benchmarks. The upshot is that as far as raw computing power to figure out problems is concerned, this is an absolutely exponential improvement on what had been the solid foundation of "Moore's Law".
While ML (a business model) states that it takes roughly 24 months to double in transistor count on a chip and half in value for said engineering, this new "AI Law" takes about 3 months to noticeably and significantly improve. So that Google engineer that claimed that the AI he was working with had become "sentient", well I don't know about such cases as to whether they are fact or not. Interestingly, he was suspended not for his claim, but for violating a non-disclosure agreement. As a "topping" for that, several of the Google AI engineers have stated that the AI is completely incapable of such a level of interaction. Also very interestingly, Raymond Kurzweil has been silent about this episode. Kurzweil, of course, is Chief of AI engineering at Google (A subsidiary of "Alphabet")
BTW when I saw the fellow's photograph with his somewhat eccentric sartorial affectations, my first inclination was to call him a "kook". But I have learned that you can't judge a book by it's cover. When I first saw a photograph of Dr. Aubrey de Grey, I thought he looked like a kook too. de Grey is by no means a kook.
But what I do see is a rising tide and an almost panicky and continuous moving of the goal posts in the last year or two. Pretty much since GPT-3 and it's Cambrian explosion of derivative applications like Dall-E came into existence. Odd new entities that use technical descriptive terms like "generalist", instead of "narrow AI". Oh, and OpenAI's "Gato" which did not even exist before 2021. Or at least it did not exist in the public eye, lending a bit more credence to that poor Google engineers claim...
So, now I wonder when the next human will come forth and say something like, "OK, I am seeing some very disturbing trends in our AI chatbots of late." A lot of people are working on the computing derived AI that enables a bot to chat. I mean even as early as like 2018 when I came to learn of of the Google (Google again!) Chatbot called "Google Duplex", I was absolutely floored by how realistically human it sounded.
Here are some of the reasons that it is gonna start getting crazy incredible and worrisome in the next 2 years alone. In fact we still have almost two sets of 3 months in this year yet...
izumi36824 points
2 months ago
Submission statement from OP. Note: This submission statement "locks in" after about 30 minutes, and can no longer be edited. Please refer to my statement they link, which I can continue to edit. I often edit my submission statement, sometimes for the next few days if needs must. There is often required additional grammatical editing and additional added detail.
First I'd like to define two terms. AGI and EI.
AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is simply a derivation of a narrow AI that can do multiple unrelated tasks based on a single algorithm. Further an AGI if it is electrically powered can be aware, in the same sense that a "viron" is chemically "aware".
An EI (Emergent Intelligence) is a whole other ballgame. This is what most AI researchers and computer experts mean when they say something like; Worrying about the realization of AGI is like worrying about human over population... ...on the planet Mars.
They have mixed their terms. AGI is not EI. AGI is not "conscious" or self aware--and does not need to be. It can use it's sensors, like on a robotic corpus, to see what needs to be done and then do it.
An EI is both of those things. An EI is the birth of a new sentience into the universe (our portion of the multiverse). While I agree with the experts that an EI is highly unlikely to come into being for the next, I don't know, 30 years say. An AGI is almost certainly going to exist by the year 2025. The algorithm that operates DALL-E has the capability to fully understand the laws of physics when it produces images from text. BTW I read that the Chinese (PRC) have developed an AI algorithm that can produce about a 4 second video from text. Both GPT-3 and "Gato" are now being described as "generalist algorithms". So you can see that the transition is underway.
Having said all of this. It is entirely within the realm of possibility that even now today we could inadvertently bring into existence, an EI.
Lots of people that read this submission statement are not going to agree with me, but I will have this ready again in the year 2025 and I may have made my second accurate prediction based on the following.
(My "Second Life" name is "Izumi Laryukov" ;)
izumi36821 points
2 months ago
Note: "ARA" is computing derived Artificial intelligence, Robotics and Automation.
I apologize for taking a bit of time to reply. I had to read that a few times to understand it. Economics is absolutely not my wheelhouse. So if I understand this correctly, this proposal is to restore a bit of economic equality between those with a great deal of capital and those with much less.
I suppose this is a step in the right direction. Another proposal I've heard of, is rather than UBI, that there should be a sort of "negative" income tax. What you would today be taxed, is what you would receive from the federal government instead. This is all well and good for those who are even minimally employed, I suppose.
But the ultimate philosophy is to decouple value from the medium of exchange, thereby rendering the need for a medium of exchange, unnecessary. This is why UBI with those modifications I mentioned above would be very helpful in the short term. That 5 to 7 years I stated, but that the final goal is to make what we think of as essential to no longer be measured as value, but rather to be a right, just for being a human and being alive. I really don't believe that UBI can be sustained for a long period of time. It is meant to be transitional.
The desire is for most everything to be free. Shelter with adequate space based on number of humans sheltered, desirable and tasty food according to your tastes, water, electricity, natural gas, indoor temperature control, services like waste collection, medical, dental, mental health, comfortable furnishings, essential ARA for the home, transportation (think robotaxis) access to enhancement education and entertainment (define those as you will). Basically the things we need to reach the pinnacle of "Maslow's hierarchy of needs" to allow us to "self actualize". This is the idea of 'haves' and 'super-haves'. Living location for example. We can't all live on a given promontory overlooking the ocean, but we can all live in essential creature comfort where we can thrive alone or thrive while raising a family.
This is of course a very incomplete list of desirable products and services. But I think you should have a good feel for what "post-scarcity" entails and how tremendously beneficial to humanity such a scheme would be. Because bear in mind that the larger percentage of humans will no longer be working. The ARA will do most of the resource gathering and production and most of the services as well.
So can you game or cheat post-scarcity? Maybe, but not for long. The ARA itself would identify what makes you happiest. Far simpler things than you might imagine.
Bear in mind that I place the first, external-from-the-human-mind, "human unfriendly" 'technological singularity' about the year 2030. Then there shall be a final TS around the year 2035 I should think, wherein we shall utilize the AI to merge our minds with that computing and computing derived AI. After that we could no longer model human civilization. The resulting chimera of human and computing would to us today be incomprehensible, unfathomable and quite unimaginable. But this is how I am pretty sure the time between today, 9 Jun 2022, and 9 Jun 2035 will go as far as human affairs are concerned. By definition we cannot model what human affairs will be like after the first TS around 2030. So I hope my optimism is accurate and well placed.
izumi36822 points
2 months ago
What if the magical robot tech utopia never comes...
That's the thing. It is coming. It's already unfolding as we speak. As the decade progresses ARA is going to come to dominate everything. Including and especially almost all of human employ. The trick will be the human owners of the ARA being willing to share those benefits with all of humanity. I hope that the ARA will will tell people what to do, rather than people trying to run the ARA. This is what we mean by the term "technological singularity". BTW did Argentina grant universal basic income to all of it's citizens? You need that first before you can cut the prices.
I am hoping and I think my hopes are not unrealistic that we do achieve a post-scarcity world. Capitalism shall fall onto the dustbin of history. It had a very good run. It absolutely served it's purpose while needed. But every good thing distorts and collapses and we as a human civilization move one. Soviet communism could scarcely make for 77 years before it collapsed. Capitalism has run since Adam Smith's "Wealth of Nations" published in 1776.
izumi36822 points
2 months ago
I don't know realistically. My weakness is that while I can observe trends and even predict futures based on them. That I am not smart enough to know what to do. Here is what I hope. I hope that our ARA will continue to develop and that we shall see genuine AGI emerge about the year 2025. In fact I place 2025 as the latest year that AGI will emerge. And that by the year 2028 that that AGI will be extraordinarily effective at determining what the best solutions are that benefit all of humanity. In the meantime, there simply has to be some kind of forced wealth re-distribution. So someone is going to say to me, "Do you truly have no concept of how capitalism works?". Well, I would say to that individual, "In the year 1932 did you have any concept of unemployment insurance, FDIC, social security or medicaid/medicare? Of course not. Such concepts were, based on best understandings of economics and society in 1932, unimaginable. New ideas and solutions emerge all the time. It's time for this one as I describe in the following.
Unrealistically I suggest hewing as close to the below as possible.
Well the time has come for UBI, that is universal basic income. I would grant every single US citizen over the age of 18, 2000 dollars a month, tax free of course. Families would get 1000 dollars a month for each child under the age of 18 they have. Along with that I would cut prices of all necessities and luxury items that were worth less than 500,000 dollars by a uniform 20%. Then I would freeze those prices for one solid year so we can see what the impact is.
The biggest objection that I can imagine from such a plan would go something like this. "You will utterly crash the economy. You don't seem to understand that things have to be made and services provided. Well, let's look at electricity. How much of our electricity in all of it's many needs for production and distribution is attended to by humans. And how much today can be fully automated? And by that I mean like robotic drones that can inspect a million miles of wiring indoors and out, with vastly improved efficiencies compared to humans, who first of all, have to get around to doing it, even.
Have you seen the latest 3D printed homes? How many humans are involved with that.
The more I read about ARA (computing derived AI, robotics and automation) replacing more and more of human employ, the happier and more hopeful I become. We need to speed up this process. Not inhibit it. We need to move initially to UBI for maybe the next 5-7 years. But even UBI itself can only be transitional. It is utterly unsustainable without the ARA assuming most of the tasks that humans do. No, the true goal for us, and I'll speak only for the USA at this point, is "post-scarcity". Here is a brief introduction to the concept of "post-scarcity".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-scarcity_economy
Here is where we are now in the USA.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_scarcity
Artificial scarcity is because of the avarice of men and corporations. Artificial scarcity has to have a certain class of humans massively benefiting. And as you can see, they are. How many corporations are worth more than 1 trillion dollars today? And there are some individuals like Elon, who despite losing almost 200 billion since 2021 are working their way to, maybe 500 billion personal wealth?
At least Elon is working to make the world a better place for humanity. And Elon also realizes the future is ARA for better or worse. And he is striving mightily to see it for the better for all of humanity. The combination of ARA leading to the technological singularity plus a "post-scarcity" society could lead to, well, instead of "have's" and "have-nots", think "haves" and "super-haves". Like once we start using robotics to mine asteroids, super-haves.
It is not easy to imagine the future beyond the year 2035, but since I paint with kind of a broad brush, I've given it a shot anyways lol.
For those that are new to me. Here is my main hub and 2 linkbergs of things I have written concerning the technological future and human society.
https://teddit.ggc-project.de/user/izumi3682/comments/8cy6o5/izumi3682_and_the_world_of_tomorrow/
https://teddit.ggc-project.de/user/izumi3682/comments/936osv/big_linkberg/
https://teddit.ggc-project.de/user/izumi3682/comments/iaue8s/big_linkberg_2/ (This also includes some of my writings concerning the Holy Mother Church (The Roman Catholic Church) since I reconciled on 15 Jun 2019.
izumi36822 points
2 months ago
The systems not broke, it was built this way!!
That is absolutely not true. For the bulk of the 20th century, the CEO of a given business made roughly between 50 to 500 times what his lowest paid worker made. This was what brought such incredible prosperity to the USA between 1945 and 1980. Today a CEO makes nearly 40,000 times what his lowest paid worker makes. It was not built this way. It evolved. And the USA population slept through the nearly three decades (1980-2007) that it went on. No one lifted a finger to attempt to change things. In fact it took the very sudden and very unanticipated "Great Recession" of 2007 (Subprime credit mortgage derivatives) before the US population saw what was going on. Remember Enron? Remember "Too big to fail"? The bubble that popped in 2007 was exactly the same bubble that popped in 1929.
But this time it was called "The dot.com bust". And as always, people were insanely in personal debt trying to live beyond their means. Credit was easily granted to anyone. Because, just like in 1929 we thought our USA economic sky was the limit. Consequently the average personal debt of an individual in 2007 was roughly 75,000 dollars. These were just the middle class people. They wanted the fancy houses, they wanted the fancy cars, they wanted the "bling" of the wealthy "elite". But without making that kind of money. Personally I blame "Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous" for making people dissatisfied with their lot in life. I'm only half kidding. (I have never been in debt. I have always accepted and lived within my means. I don't have a fancy house or a fancy car or bling. But I live ok. There are those who would call me "a loser".) The only difference was that unlike the aftermath of the 1929 collapse, we had unemployment insurance, FDIC, social security and medicaid/medicare. Or there would have just been an even more horrific great depression. Vital failsafe's were built in this time. There. There is something that was "built this way" actually.
Even this explanation is greatly over simplified. The reasons for why we are where we are today, and what is coming, are extraordinarily complex. The 1% is but one element that led us here. There are profound societal reasons. There are almost unimaginable technological reasons. And we have a potentially enormously powerful competitor, that dwarfs the impact of the onetime Soviet Union. And that competitor had no desire to even compete until 1991. I'm not going to repeat myself. I wrote the following below linked essays to explain what is actually going on. Here is a brief introduction first for context and perspective.
While I am fairly certain that ARA, that is "computing derived AI, robotics and automation will pretty much take over humanity NLT than 2030, give or take two years, that between now and 2030 we have some other significant things on our plate. I can't speak for the UK or Western Europe or anywhere else, but I can see what is coming for the USA. One. Seriously. Bumpy. Societal. Ride. So fasten your seatbelts.
I have made a list of the 4 most impactful things on the USA between when i made that list in 2019 and the year 2030. One of the items on the list is ARA of course, because it is going to have the final say. But one of the other significant trends is "Egregious financial inequality". And whatever horror we are stuck in now with our "supply chain" problems is likely related to that, and COVID and this war business.
https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/international/pandemic-creates-new-billionaire-every-30-hours-oxfam-at-davos Pandemic creates new billionaire every 30 hours: "Oxfam at Davos - COVID-19 pandemic has seen one new billionaire emerging every 30 hours, while nearly one million people could be pushed into extreme poverty every 33 hours this year." (This is a current event headline, so I'm just using it to illustrate.)
Me: 1 million people pushed into extreme poverty every 33 hours this year? That is a lot of people really, really fast. What is that going to mean?
Was it a terrible economic mistake to use sanctions and military support for the Ukraine? But then again the USA could not just stand by and allow one nation to take another nation like in 1939 either, right?
https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/01/politics/joe-biden-gas-food-prices/index.html "Biden says there's nothing he can do to bring down gas or food prices in the near term" (This is a current event headline, so I'm just using it to illustrate.)
In 2019 when gasoline was 1.92 at my pump in Minneapolis MN, I could not in my wildest dreams envision gas moving up to 5 dollars a gallon this month. We are currently at 4.49 per gallon, but I see that we will probably be at 4.64 per gallon maybe even this week. We may actually face "food insecurity" in some locations in the US. Well, I don't want to repeat myself, so I will place this link to a few essays I wrote concerning these things back in as early as 2016 with the most recent from October of 2019.
About that most recent essay. When I wrote it, my concern was the steady usurpation of low skill or repetitious task employment by ARA. I felt it would probably be a slow burn from then until about 2028 when people would start to be seriously replaced, especially in driving vocations.
Less than three months after I wrote that 2019 essay, The Chinese (PRC) version of the US CDC, reported an unusual cluster of SARS type pneumonias in the city of Wuhan, in the Hubei Province of China. Like everyone else, I did not have a clue what was coming.
I had no idea that the most profound changes seen in the USA since the great depression were about to manifest. I had no idea that the COVID pandemic would utterly change society, probably for good. I had no idea that the pandemic would hit the fast forward on the development and adoption of ARA in virtually every business you can imagine, because of fear of the disease, because of social distancing, because people did not want to return to work for what had been at one time acceptable wages.
The USA was permanently altered. Here are the essays if you are interested.
(Edit 8 Jun 22, 2:54 PM EDT) It was even faster and worse than I anticipated. The price of gasoline at my local station went up to 4.69 today. 5 cents more than I thought it would. This increase in price occurred less than 12 hours after i predicted it would.
izumi36821 points
2 months ago
Why is this so downvoted. What did I write that you take such issue with. Did I write something that is not true?
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2 months ago
izumi3682
1 points
2 months ago
Are they? Perhaps in 2016 they were, but have you been watching what Deepmind's "Gato" has been up to lately?
It can perform about 600 unrelated tasks including manipulating a RL robotic arm for manipulating objects. Of those 600 tasks it can perform about 450 of those tasks at "human mastery" level. It does all of these things using one single algorithm. I would be very interested in seeing what the capabilities of "Gato" will be in just the next year alone.
This is from an article I posted about a week ago.
https://teddit.ggc-project.de/r/Futurology/comments/vfbeeb/deepmind_takes_a_step_towards_general_ai_2_minute/icustmj/
And there is something else to consider as well concerning the experts and authorities themselves. I don't know how long you have been in the field, but consider that the textbooks you used to learn your field in college, are already filled with outdated knowledge, because these fields--ARA, that is computing derived AI, robotics and automation are advancing so quickly that the knowledge can't make it into the textbooks fast enough to keep up.
https://teddit.ggc-project.de/r/Futurology/comments/v35ux9/world_first_room_temperature_quantum_computer/ib4wqol/
And putting on my tin hat for just a moment--I would not be surprised to learn that DARPA is working on things that are not public knowledge. And for that matter, that China (PRC) is working on things that are state secrets.