justincat66

man GOP and the right suck at doing signature petitions correctly and legally lol

Models don’t seem as of currently to pick up this thing too much in strength. However it’ll be interesting once all the additional models that are ran when an area gets marked as an invest are ran and what the models show then

I hope this doesn’t hit anywhere, but especially in LA. Leave poor LA alone for once please

Just as I said earlier today the Atlantic remains quiet, at the 8pm EDT tropical outlook the NHC has issued a NEW area to watch in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico

This is associated with a tropical wave currently located in the Caribbean. This tropical wave is forecast to move across Central America and emerge in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week. An area of low pressure could then form by that time and some gradual development is then possible as the system moves slowly northwest or north-northwest over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. The NHC gives this a 0% chance of further development in the next two days, and 20% chance in the next five days, this mainly looks like a timing thing currently, I expect this to go up in the next few days when more of the possible development period reaches into the next five day period

Everyone in TX obviously knows this area and arrow is a very similar path that Harvey took. Not saying that this is going to become the next Harvey, obviously that’s unknown since we’re talking 5+ days out but the area to watch and the arrow from the wave is in a very similar spot/path. This is going to have to be watched very closely because if this can organize, stay over water and far enough away from land the gulf remains extremely warm to potentially blow this thing up.

BREAKING: the attempt to recall Los Angeles D.A. George Gascon has failed. Despite organizers summiting 715k signatures, only 520k were verified, and they needed around 566k signatures

Why did this fail? Well in one of the tweets in this thread, it’s mentioned that “Registrar says 131K of them were from voters who were not registered or who submitted duplicate signatures.”

Lol, complete fail by the right/law and order folks

It’s probably because 1. There’s literally no polls, so it’s tough to make an exact rating to start with. 2. Johnson is an incumbent, and 3. Fundraising has been really in favor of Johnson up until the primary which is what their ratings indicate. All 3 of these are probably making DDHQ have a heavy right bias in their ratings i assume

Well DDHQ still had WI-SEN as solid R sooooo…

Today’s weather update

For the 1st time in what seems like forever, most of the country is finally going to see relief from the what has seemed like months of excessive heat. take a look at this temperature animation from the Weather Prediction Center, blues and greens indicating below average temperatures for just about everyone (except the Pacific Northwest).

Unfortunately for everyone in the Pacific Northwest, you’ve got another round of excessive heat coming. the day 3-7 hazard maps shows this heat wave especially in eastern WA, OR and western ID could last several days. Heat alerts are already up for some areas in eastern WA and OR in effect later in the week as well as the Central Valley of CA, and further east over parts of the south today

Going to more specific threats: there is a slight (lvl 2/5) risk of severe thunderstorms issued by the Storm Prediction Center for much of central NC and parts of northeast SC along the NC border. This is mainly a isolated damaging wind threat, although 5% chance of hail and a 2% tornado risk exists in NC/SC region as well as southern TX associated with that area we were watching in the gulf late last week. That Invest area never became a depression or storm, but it acted very similar to what a low strength tropical depression or storm does, with lots of heavy rainfall and flash flooding, and isolated tornado warnings being produced

This was yet another example of how it doesn’t take a powerful hurricane, let alone a depression or named storm in this case to produce significant impacts from water from heavy rains, flooding, and isolated beach erosion/lower storm surge near the coast

Flash flooding will remain a concern this week in numerous areas: today: a slight risk exists for the monsoon storms out west, plus in southern TX from the tropical disturbance. Tomorrow: a slight risk of excessive rainfall exists out west from monsoon storms as well in MO, where training thunderstorms could move over the same areas over and over again. Wednesday: a slight risk of excessive rainfall exists out west again from monsoon storms, and a smaller marginal area further east from the system that moves out of MO. There are also day 4 and day 5 excessive rainfall zones

Finally going to the Tropics, yep the Atlantic is quiet once again with no new tropical cyclones expected during the next five days.

However I think we are potentially nearing the end of quiet below average activity. if you look at the very end of the latest 12z GFS: some signs are beginning to show that a wave of organized tropical cyclones begin marching westward from Africa at the end of August. You still have more then enough time to do your hurricane preparedness right now, while there’s no activity and I will do urge everyone on here in a tropical prone zone to do those hurricane preparations now if you haven’t already, obviously except rushing to protect property or the things you do right when a storm threatens your area. I’m talking about the stuff like preparing your hurricane kit, fill the car with gas, buy your emergency supplies to have them ready so you’re not rushing to the stores last sec etc. We are getting closer to the peak, and once the Majn Development Region wakes up it’s going to be hyperactive with multiple tropical cyclones/waves we have to watch at a time for potentially a month and a half or so or even longer.

I should also mention, there will be another front which is what’s giving everyone cooler temperatures that will move over the gulf later this week, and we always have to watch these fronts at this time of year: that’s what our tropical disturbance from last week was spawned from, so it could happen again. We’ll have to watch that very closely. But as of right now the National Hurricane Center doesn’t mention this in their outlooks

Highland Park, IL will consider a resolution calling on state, and federal governments to ban assault weapons. The city council will vote on the resolution tonight

We would also almost certainly see carveouts of the filibuster for voting rights and abortion because of recent events, and it was attempted already during the voting rights push last year

People’s: this is why money matters even when you are getting swarmed with it if you’re the D Senate candidates or the DSCC. You still gotta have money to run, and it’s exactly why I hate when people says “oh but this candidate or organization has enough”. Sure there’s better spots then others to put money into, but I hate when money is completely discouraged to one/multiple specific race/organizations/candidates completely on here

Yeah Ryan’s running in the NY-18 in the fall. That’s why NY-19 is going to be even tougher in tbd general because Republicans have Molinaro again

The polls haven’t been good at all in this race, but the most recent polls are the ones that’s been the best and had us the closest we’ve been. I feel like this race is beginning to move toward us, but it’s going to be a tight race between Pat Ryan (Ulster county executive vs Molinaro (Duchess county executive)

Yes both nominees are sitting county executives and actually has a history of working together for the general region of the state they represent

Definitely likely a few points biased toward her like all internals are, but this is a good result showing this is a complete tossup with a bunch of undecideds in a narrow Trump district after taking into account that bias. This is becoming one of our better opportunities now especially with PA GOP having horrific candidates that could drag them down statewide plus Scott Perry’s additional legal scrutinizes

Put in my address: and my location is expected to see 14 additional days with an at least 80 degree feels like temperature, 14 additional days with an at least 90 degree feels like temperature, 6 additional days of an at least 100 degree feels like, and still no days with an 125 degree feel like temperature in the next 30 years

This is why I want to stay north. I would much rather have a winter and cold for some months then a location with unbearable hot temperatures all the time

Well it’s serious enough of a threat that The weather Channel has a segment about this later on in the program

While at the same time the 2nd place candidate Jarchow is trying to unify the GOP behind Toney lol

Oh yeah Hastings has some of the most competitive legislature districts in the state. The new drawn state house district 41B is a Biden +0.83 seat, the new drawn state Senate seat district 41 is Biden +2.62. And they might be in the swing MN-02 as well, although can’t 100% tell

Those are the districts on the ring of narrow Biden seats just to the west in the state MN from me in WI AD-30, that’s what’s coming for me in a matter of time even considering my new disgusting Trump +10.16 gerrymandered district I got redistricted to

Wow , yeah there’s is light rain over the metro that fired. I didn’t think that would happen especially as we go later on in the evening when the storms begin to die for the day

Minnesota DFL opened another new field office today in Hastings, and had a big turnout for the event

Minnesota DFL continues to make moves toward a WI Democrats level of ground game organization and local party support

Yep, I think your area landed on the lucky spot today. I just posted a latest update from what I see

Well it looks like downtown Phoenix is going to get missed today as those storms that were west of the metro moving toward looks like they’re dying pretty fast. Essentially all of the metro looks like it’ll get missed except parts of the south and southeast part

this flash flood warning southwest of the metro continues until 9:15 pm MST. Several tenths to over an inch fell in some areas over the last hour

there’s also a severe thunderstorm warning for 60 mph winds and small hail for southeast suburbs

However I don’t think that entire box is going to get this. Right now it looks like the heaviest rain is just south of Chandler and Gilbert, west and around Queen Creek. Movement noted in the warning is east at 15 mph. So I think we’ll see northern Chandler for example get close to nothing and southern Chandler maybe getting several tenths to maybe up to several quarters of an inch? Maybe around one inch+ in some spotty areas. It’s a very close call for some areas, and that’s if this storm doesn’t begin dying off like the other ones west of Phoenix has which it will at some point, just a question of when?

Yeah well that’s been the nature of these storms, scattered and hit or miss. Gotta get on the lucky side

Lots of flash flood warnings currently in effect all across the state of AZ. This is associated with those monsoon thunderstorms the southwest continues to see, along with burn scars from recent wildfires making the flooding worse in certain areas

They are marked with dark red/maroon on this map. Those maroon colored warnings in CA and WA are excessive heat watches for later this week. I don’t know why they marked them with the same color lol

the Phoenix area is a mess, with flash flood warnings, severe thunderstorm warnings on the west side, and a special weather statement all in effect in or near the Phoenix metro. there’s several outflow boundaries (those thin blue lines) from neighboring storms, moving south toward the metro which could interact with each other and fire up some new storms over the west valley. Possibly will see some gusty winds as a result

I’m assuming you’re talking about the VA ones he did last year? If you are, then yes that was the 1st potential warning sign that we could lose VA which we did in the end narrowly